Arabica coffee futures closed higher today amid bullish factors. The most active contract for December delivery gained 520 points to settle at 152.85 cents a pound. Volume reached 42,238 lots including 9,468 switches. A possible double bottom pattern on the charts encouraged the speculative buying. Near over sold conditions added the positive sentiment. As participants are eyeing the weather conditions in Brazil’s coffee belt entering the rainy season, the recent forecasts, however, show little to no rain for the next ten days. While this isn’t damaging yet, rains will need to begin in the coming weeks and remain regular during the key flowering stage to ensure proper development of the 2024 crop. In general, the seasonal chart favors a period of recovery now until the end of October/beginning of November. The US dollar was slightly lower today ahead of key economic data, which is also adding some support to the commodity complex. Arabica ICE certs stocks fell 7,600 bags to 442,553 bags today, a total of 18,520 bags are now pending grading.
Robusta Nov23 contract settled at $2439 +32 with a 2457/2400 range. A slow session with Robusta seemingly shadowing the price action in Arabica. A test of the recent low found some technical and commercial buying scale down. We did eventually see a small technical rally back into the 100ma / 40ma at 2454 area. Structure remains firm with little to no change from Friday. Robusta Nov23 2800 call traded 700x @ 6, Robusta Nov23 2100 put @ 5.