Arabica coffee futures amplified the previous day’s range testing both sides as the Jul23 switch continues to be managed. OI on Jul23 stands at 12,558 as of yesterday, Arabica FND next week on the 22nd. On the technical side we close the week lower 535 points in a congestion range of the 8-, 20-, and 50-day moving averages, weather patterns in brasil have been monitored since the beginning of the week and US market news kept the broader commodity markets vigilant this week. Arabica Certified stocks declined 998 bags to 545,327 bags. Pending grading remain at 11,547 bags. No grading was reported today. COT(CIT) Non-commercials increased net long position by 1,087 lots to 16,051 lots net long. Monday 19th, US markets will be closed in observance of the Juneteenth Holiday.
The Robusta market observes only a marginal correction lower moving into the weekend, as participants focus on the remain july23 working exposure (29,022 lots) as first notice day nears. Structure remains firm as the roasting sector continue to fix against July23 drawing ongoing support into spot July23/Sep23 with values holding $40 premium and the wider market monitor issues in Vietnam. Technically values are running into resistance at the upper Bollinger band average whilst operating in overbought territory. However, the market would need to settle below $2671 basis Sep23 to change the dynamics of the recent upside, therefore long continue to operate amid comfort.