Daily Futures Commentaries

Daily Coffee Report - 07/02/2024

7/2/2024

Coffee Futures Closed Higher

Coffee futures continue their thin summer trade, swinging to both sides of unchanged today on another wide trading range of 9.65 cents and low volume. Prices were lower early in the session off the open and stayed mostly flat until a bid of over 2,000 lots came in over a span of 20 minutes to take prices from 226.55 to a session high of 231.10 basis Sep24. The market then eased lower for the rest of the session to settle 2.45 higher at 227.30. 4 lots of arabica were issued today against July24 bringing the total for the period to 622.
Market seems content for now holding the recent range of 220-230, waiting for a trigger to make prices break. This reminds me of the price action we saw for the first four months of this year, when prices stayed within a range of 180-200 before breaking higher for March deliveries. Non-commercials are happy to stay long with the current market structure and seem to be present on every dip to bring prices back higher.
Robusta futures followed a similar pattern today, mostly tracking the New York terminal settling 25 higher at 4092 basis Sep24. There were no tenders today and cert stocks increased by 136 lots bringing the total back up to 5,960 lots. Nearby spreads continue to lend support to the market with U/Z holding at 160 premium.

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Daily Coffee Report - 06/24/2024

6/24/2024

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Coffee Futures Rally

Coffee markets closed higher today, led by the Robusta market as July24 deliveries began after the close. The active Sep24 arabica contract closed 11.25 higher at 236.25 but went out 12.10 higher at 237.10 on 41,061 contracts of volume. The market slowed down at the upper Bollinger Band but still looked firm on the close. Total deliveries to June 24th are at 210 contracts or 52,500 bags. Certified stocks increased 3,849 bags today to a total 835,444 bags. We began the session with 763 open contracts in July24 with 58 contracts traded today. Today’s COT (CIT) reported little change in the net reportable positions: non-commercial long 1,618 contracts lower at 43,321 while the commercial short was 770 contracts lower to 95,076. There was some chatter circulating today about weather concerns in Brazil. There will be a polar air mass reaching the southeast of Brazil during the first week of July, but as of now there is very low probability of a frost event affecting the coffee producing areas.
Robusta led the way higher today from the start with July opening at 4339 and trading to a high of 4516 before coming off late to settle at 4454. The market closed 155 higher on a strong 21,810 contracts of total volume. We began the session today with 11,323 contracts of open interest in July24, but 5,828 contracts traded today. Currently there are a total of 5,932 lots of robusta certified stock. The active Sep24 position settled 11.25 184 higher at 4252 and market structure continues to hold a strong backwardation with the Sep24/Sep25 closing today at 664 premium. The July/July arb was quoted as low as 23 cents today but closed near 36. Sep/Sep closed at 43.82.

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