Arabica coffee futures today continued the recent sideways trend and had a calm start to the delivery period by recent standards. The spot July24 contract settled 0.85 lower at 226.30, trading in a range of 222.50 to 228.85. Total volume reached 47,257 contacts, including 15,031 spreads. The spot contract closed yesterday with 6,760 lots of open interest yesterday, and most of the today’s 9,860 lots of contract volume was focused on book squaring ahead of the delivery period. Overall volume and open interest have trended lower over the past 4 sessions, with the market trading in a tight 6.8 range as most participants have opted to stay out of the market until deliveries begin to play out. The July/Sep spread today traded in a range of -0.65 to 0.25, with not much to note in terms of price action or flow. Arabica futures will be closed tomorrow for holiday.
Robusta futures broke lower today through last week’s low of 4073 but recovered some ground with an hour until the close as it continues to also hold a sideways trading pattern. The market is trading around moving averages, bouncing off nearby supports and resistance levels. July24 closed 55 lower at 4108 on 17,560 contracts of total volume, including 5,786 spreads. The July/Sep was on the firm side today, trading up to a high of 120 before going out at 115 premium, finding some support despite the continued flow of gradings. The July24 contract still had a hefty 20,004 contracts of open interest as of yesterday’s close – traders will be watching this number as we approach first notice day on June 25th. Today’s price action took the July/July arb to 40 cents, a high since the end of May.

July24 Arabica options expiration once again did not disappoint today, leaving everyone wondering: what’s next? The day started out with more of the same, futures opened lower and continued with no bid in sight, led by the July24/Sep24 spread that saw a one year low of -1.50. It did not take long for buyers to slowly appear until the action really picked up right before 12 PM EST. The front spread traded from the low of -1.50 to -0.20, before going out at -0.65 on 18,092 lots of volume. July24 futures traded in a 12.35 cent range today from a low of 215.00 to 227.35, settling 3.80 higher at 224.35. Total volume reached 102,794 lots including 30,092 spreads. Now we will repeat what we have been saying since prices started to head lower: now that options are off the board, the market will turn its focus to July24 deliveries. The July/Sep CSO put buyer led the way lower since last week’s high, now someone else has shown their hand. We have four sessions left until First Notice Day on June 20th, as June 19th the market will be closed for holiday.
July24 Robusta coffee futures traded in a $100 range today, opening higher but tracking Arabica lower for most of the session until the NY terminal turned. The underlying fundamental support has kept Robusta prices steadier throughout the Arabica selloff. The July/July arb today fell to 26 cents but came back above 32 for the close. 20,075 total contracts traded today in the London terminal, expect volume and volatility to pick up as we head into options expiration and the delivery period over the next two weeks.

Arabica coffee futures plunged Friday as technical and news induced selling. The most active contract for July delivery settled 10.65 cents or 4.57% lower at 222.35 cents a pound. The USDA’s estimate for Vietnam 2024-2025 crop bigger than expected made participants to reevaluate the supply prospects at the same time that the recent rains appeared to have improved the conditions for the next crop.  The USDA forecasts the 2024 -2025 Vietnam’s crop at 29.0 million on the high level compared with private estimates.  Over bought conditions and the “C” market failed against previous high prompted the spec selling. Players that added long positions recently could also rushed to take profit or liquidate weak positions. Cert stocks decreased 1,595 bags to 784,771 bags. Pending grading increased 2,794 bags to 28,069 bags. No grading done on Friday.
Robusta coffee didn’t follow Arabica to new highs on the early hours but followed the correction lower to the nearby support of 4026. The main contract Jul24 settled 150 points lower at 4120 and a broad range of 4081/4369 for today’s session. Volume was kept constant with a total of 23,900 lots, including 7,805 switches. The London market closed a volatile month after trading both lower and higher than in April, with a gain of 112 points.

​Arabica coffee futures closed higher on Friday at the end of slow session. The reference contract for July delivery closed 260 points higher at 218.25 cents per pound. Without further fundamental news, the price action was mainly motivated by technical factors. The consolidation and support against the previous session's lows generated speculative buying and short covering. The open interest rose 3,510 lots as of yesterday, revealing a substantial rise in short positions stablished by players who had anticipated further declines after the market failed against resistance levels. The nearby structure firmed again on short covering. During the week, Arabica prices climbed 11.65 cents or 5.63%.  The Robusta market continued to support the “C” market. The lack of enough rainfall in Vietnam remains raising concerns amid traders.

Arabica certified stocks decreased by 30 bags to 774,686 bags. Pending grading increased 1,780 bags to 23,980 bags. Today no grading was done.

COT (CIT) Non-commercials increased their long position by 1,134 lots to 55,670 lots long and decreased their short position by 238 lots to 14,293 lots short, with a net long position of 41,377 lots in the week to May 21st.

Robusta July contract settled at $3904 with a 3907/3810 range. A positive inside day with a lot more commercial activity than seen of late. Flat price still continues to be dominated by speculative activity, but it seemed some commercials had an axe to grind prior to the long weekend. Volumes were extremely low less than 6k lots traded on the most active Jul24 contract. Structure continues to operate within the recent range, Jul/Sep saw a 78/88 range on 2.2k lots. Robusta Jul24 3000 put traded 1250x @ 5, Robusta CSO Jul24/Sep24 110 call traded 800x @ 15/16

On Monday May 27, London and New York markets will be closed on holiday.