october 7, 2022.
Arabica coffee futures lingered around the previous day lows in the beginning of the session as participants decided to add to their new shorts from previous session. The C contract extended the move lower on Nonfarm payrolls, where good news just meant bad news. The dollar strengthened and the Job numbers gave fodder for the hawks at the Fed. The U.S. economy created 263K jobs in September, which was slightly above the 250K expected by analysts, while down from 315K the previous month. After arabica tested the lower Bollinger band good support was found and late shorts panic out allowing for a retracement of the days range marking the high at 221.05 on Dec22 contract. The active contract for December delivery closed 40 points higher at 218.10 cents a pound. The volume reached 42,304 contracts including 11,735 switches. The nearby Dec/Mar structure settle at 9.85 cents premium. The certs stocks decrease by 287 bags to 416,719 bags. Pending grading: 4,076 bags. No grading today.
COT (CIT) Non-commercials decrease net long position by 2,419 to 24,327 net longs in week to October 4. Robusta NOV22 contract settled at $2155 +15 with a 2161/2135 range. Although a ‘’green’’ day market continues in its downwards trajectory. Today was an inside day with very little commercial activity to note. We are now approaching a support are of congested moving averages (200ma 2124, 100ma 2119). We expect to start to see some commercial buying scale down. Volumes were low with 5.5k on NOV22, NOV22/JAN23 traded 2.5k lots between -1/3. JAN23 2200 calls LU traded 3000x @ 77.
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