Morning commentary for Oct.6th (by Alonso Thomas)

Good Morning!! A lack of rain in the Brazil forecast has sparked aggressive buying on the opening and the market pushed all the way through the April highs. Until there is a sign of widespread rains to spark a nice even flowering period, coffee traders are going to assume even larger losses to the 2015 crop than are possible.  Traders believe that nearly 50% of the coffee belt in Brazil has not seen enough rain to spark flowering, and many traders see a lack of rain for the next 3 weeks as a supply threat.  Coffee interest is up nearly 10,000 contracts since the mid-September lows as coffee seems to have the longer term fundamentals to attract significant buying interest fund traders.  Coffee is one of the few commodity markets with the threat of 2 years in a row of global production deficits.  Until there are confirmed reports that there are consistent rains in the forecast, buyers will continue to scramble for coverage. Buying support for December comes in at near the 214.00 and then 205.00, with resistance with no major merit until the 245-250 range.