Morning Commentary for Nov.19th (by Alonso Thomas)

    Good Morning!!  The uncertain supply outlook has helped proved underlying support and the International Coffee Organization sees global demand growth of 2.5% through 2020 when consumption reaches 175 MM bags from 149.45MM this year. The group sees a global deficit of 800,00 bags for 2014 and many traders see a more significant deficit for 2015.  The coffee market continues to find solid support near the 190.00 level as end user buyers extend coverage. There is no tightness or lack of supply right now in the physical markets as Brazilian exporters have been aggressive sellers for much of this calendar year, but this pace cannot continue ahead as stock levels have been declining while the smaller crop this season and even smaller crop for 20115 should bring down Brazilian stocks to extremely tight levels.  Coffee end users and fund traders may turn more active as news continues to come out in weeks ahead. The market faces a global production deficit for this season and next, March coffee buying comes in near the 190-191 area, with resistance now at 198.00-200.25.