Morgan Stanley Coffee Report

Early consolidation just shy of unchanged abruptly gave way to aggressive buying around 8am EDT, matching similar flows into related markets at that time.  The highs for the day would be recorded a mere 30 minutes thereafter, as friendly if expected employment numbers placed a short term top in the dollar index.  The release of Department of Energy numbers at 11am EDT definitively killed a theretofore steady crude market, with price action for the remainder of the trading day appearing remarkably similar across a number of markets, with coffee, crude, sugar, and the CRB all posting a familiar pattern (see below).  Late day defense would arrive as it has in a noticeable manner, leading many to continue to speculate about the source of the recent strength. With yesterday’s Fed minutes reinforcing the unlikelihood of any rate hikes in the near term, and the focus on growth, jobs and inflation reiterated, tomorrow’s Non-Farm Payrolls will be closely watched.