Morgan Stanley Coffee Report

The Robusta market traded higher for 6 out of the past 7 days, to fresh 4 year highs, as funds continue to pile on longs while dryness persists in Brazil’s conillon region.  Forecasts predict minimal rainfall over the next 7 days in Central and northern Espirito Santo, eastern Bahia and northeastern Minas. The London COT report released today tells us that the managed money long position grew by 4,799 lots over the Jan 4-10 reporting week.   New York traded higher in sympathy with a firmer London, weaker dollar and firmer real. Activity was largely spec related as prices have flirted with and consolidated around the 1.50 level for the past four days, settling today just 10 points shy.   Conab released its first 2017 crop estimate which was greeted with the usual skepticism and taken in stride, calling for a crop of 43.7 to 47.5 mm bag crop comprised of 35-37.9 Arabica and 8.64 to 9.63 mm bags of conillons.  For now the story is in London, while New York stands patient, taking its intraday cues from fluctuations in the real.