Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - April 1, 2021

​KCK closed 121.60, -1.90 while taking a large step back in trading ahead of the holiday weekend.  As a reminder both Arabica and Robusta are closed tomorrow for Good Friday.  Robusta will remain shuttered Monday while KC has a delayed 7:30am NY time open.  Prices gapped higher on the open on the continuation of yesterday’s late trading and mostly held on through 8am while picking up very little volume.  An early blow to the BRL seemed to weigh on KC and a quick reversal of positive opening prints in the FX market brought 400 lots of selling in coffee, or at a minimum was remarkably well timed to it.  Some industry buying helped cushion the blow and short term specs bought it back over the next hour but that proved to be the last hurrah as coffee bled lower for the balance of the day, ultimately printing the low of 120.75 on the final trade.  Basis the 2nd month continuation, the 50% retracement of the Nov low / Feb high (122.65) was supportive, holding for a second day 2 ticks below the 122.75 KCN low.  Spreads saw less volume than the past two sessions yet were still elevated vs recent sessions, roughly 6k lots more than the 2 week average.  KN widened a tick to -1.95s, NU gained one to -1.85s, and the KK 1 year settled -9.30, 5 points weaker.   London meanwhile continues to slip, 1325, -17, well below relevant moving averages.  The COT will be released tomorrow even with the market closed for those keen to get a look.