Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - January 22'18

Arabica rejected a brief sojourn below the 120 line, uncovering convincing support before rallying back to close the day +.15 at 121.15.  Sellers arrived in waves at intriguing times; 8am EST, 8:30, 9:25, each time popping volume and driving prices in a straight line lower.  Follow up action was sparse however, and if it was an attempt to trip stops the effort was largely in vain, with coffee quickly rebounding.  That rebound may have been a repudiation of prices below 120, yet it was also perfectly in line with a move in sugar, and similar to though lagging trends in crude and the broader commodity complex.  Generally speaking, traders seemed checked out and increasingly bored by the action.  Robusta suffered a day after her sister market, falling $37 to settle 1756.  While Arabica disavowed prices outside the range to the downside, London did so to the upside.  Stiff resistance has shown up in the form of origin hedging, and incentive for sustained higher levels seems sparse.  Today’s COT was much awaited – as is the case in what has been a flow driven mkt – and the spec position came in at the higher end of expectations at -55,050 as gross shorts piled in to near-record levels at 92,361.  The index long grew 6725 lots, and commercials were busy on both sides, with longs growing 9981 lots and shorts adding 3917.