Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

      After breaking yesterday's low about fifteen minutes into the session, New York coffee rallied but fell well short of the middle of yesterday's range. We fell to break the early low one-half hour into active trading, then traded quietly within the established extremes the rest of the way. Great strength in the dollar-real dampened any positive sentiment. The dollar rallied and precious metals tumbled on hawkish comments by members of the U.S. Federal Reserve. The British Pound traded to a 31-year low.
     December New York (KCEZ6) settled in its bottom half, down ten points. Volume was thirteen percent below average at an estimated 27,023 lots including an estimated 922 EFP's, 147 EFS's, 199 TAS and 7,140 spreads. 4,152 calls and 2,103 puts also traded. The KCEZ6-LRCX6 arbitrage: 59.04¢. Ratio: 1.6647. €: $1.1201-0.1%. BRL: 3.2475/$-1.2%. CRB: +0.2%. Crude oil: -0.2%. S&P500:-0.6%. Open interest: 185,803-1,382.
     November London (LRCX6) settled six dollars from its low, down nineteen dollars. Volume was estimated at 11,880 lots including 3,418 spreads and 338 EFP's. 748 calls and 110 puts also traded. Open interest: 118,704+164.
     Brazil exported 2,755,438 60-kg bags of coffee in September, the Trade Ministry reports, up five percent from August, down 5.6% from 2,918,548 bags in September 2015. That brings the total for the completed 2015/16 crop year to 30.9 mln bags, down 6.4% from 33.0 mln bags in 2014/15.
     Costa Rica shipped 49,679 60-kg bags of coffee in September, national coffee institute ICAFE estimates, up 31.2% from 37,864 bags last year. Oct-Sep exports are up 7.0% from one year earlier at 1,243,033 bags.
     Locally heavy rain fell in northern Sul de Minas, Brazil Monday possibly resulting in some flowering. Rain in Sul de Minas and Rio de Janeiro will slowly drift northward through Friday.- World Weather, Inc.
John Bernardi