Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

     After taking out yesterday's high 22 minutes into active trading, Sep16 New York coffee fell steadily over the next three hours, 4.10¢ from the high, just over one cent from yesterday's low. The rest of the day was spent in a 95 point range off the low. Volume was subpar.
     Daily uptrend from June 1st at 140.20¢/139.84¢ in Sep16 tomorrow (log/linear).
    September New York (KCEU6) settled near its low (15%), down 1½¢. Volume was forty-two percent below average at an estimated 24,769 lots including an estimated 670 EFP's, 169 EFS's, 343 TAS and 5,287 spreads. 4,410 calls and 4,843 puts also traded. The KCEU6-LRCU6 arbitrage: 62.00¢. Ratio: 1.7750. €: $1.1056-0.4%. BRL: 3.3498/$-0.6%. CRB: -2.3%. Crude oil: -5.8%. S&P500:-0.4%. Open interest: 176,019-547 (50-day stochastic: 20%; 125-day: 16%).
     September London (LRCU6) settled in its upper third (68%), up thirteen dollars. Volume was sixty-one percent below average at an estimated 6,761 lots including 1,265 spreads and 849 EFP's. 358 calls and 300 puts also traded. Open interest: 97,916-623 (50-day stochastic: 6½%; 125-day: 2½%).
     The Colombian Coffee Federation estimates that June coffee exports were down 7.4% year-on-year to 932,000 60-kg bags. Production was down 6.6% to 1.158 mln bags. 12-month exports were up 12% to 12.902 mln bags, 12-month production up 12.6% to 14.469 mln bags. (chart)
     The European Coffee Federation reports that coffee stocks in Antwerp, Bremen, Hamburg, Genova, Le Havre and Trieste rose 19,086 tonnes (2.8%) in April to 706,789 tonnes. That is 9,645 tonnes (1.4%) higher than the 697,324 tonnes in store at the end of April 2015. (chart)
     Brazil coffee weather: Mostly dry during the past 24 hours. Temperatures averaged above normal yesterday. Mostly dry during the next seven days. Temperatures average near to above normal today, mostly above normal Friday through next Wednesday.