Evening Coffee by Societe Generale
After opening as much as a cent lower, New York coffee rallied at the start of active trading on a newswire article calling for frost in certain Brazilian coffee areas over the weekend. Other weather services rejected that prognosis and we sold back off, trading to within a cent of the early low after the original report was corrected, calling for cold but not frost.
Chart gap support: 145.05¢@144.35¢ in Sep16 NY. Daily uptrend dating back to June 1st is at 143.09¢ tomorrow.
September New York (KCEU6) settled in its lower half (42%), up one-quarter cent. Volume was thirty-five percent below average at an estimated 26,260 lots including an estimated 488 EFP's, 5 EFS's, 537 TAS and 7,240 spreads. 5,644 calls and 5,118 puts also traded. The KCEU6-LRCU6 arbitrage: 65.35¢. Ratio: 1.7934. €: $1.1109+0.4+0.1%. BRL: 3.2807/$+½%. CRB: -0.9%. Crude oil: -3.6%. S&P500-0%. Open interest: 180,521+2,251 (50-day stochastic: 37%; 125-day: 29%).
September London (LRCU6) settled in its top quarter (77%), up seven dollars. Volume was ten percent below average at an estimated 15,036 lots including 5,782 spreads and 548 EFP's. 360 calls and 1,155 puts also traded. Open interest: 100,726-719 (50-day stochastic: 23%; 125-day: 9%).
Brazil exported 2,381,692 60-kg bags of coffee in June, exporter group Cecafé estimates, down 10.9% from 2,672,341 bags last June. Arábica shipments were up 2.6% to 1,984,984 bags, conillon down 79.5% to 83,030 bags, soluble down 5.41% to 310,969 bags-equivalent and roasted exports down 24% to 2,436 bags. 12-month total exports were down 3.2% to 35.414 mln bags.
Japanese warehouse coffee stocks rose 5,595 tonnes in May to 206,340 tonnes, the All-Japan Coffee Association reports. Stocks of Brazilian coffee were up 3,152 tonnes to 98,301 tonnes, Central American stocks up 3,363 tonnes to 31,055. Total stocks are 13.6% higher than the 181,611 tonnes in store at the end of May 2015.
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