Evening Coffee by Societe Generale
A quiet day for coffee today. The Jul16 New York traded within yesterday's extremes in reduced volume, breaking its streak of new daily highs at six. We closed above the day's open, however, for the eighth straight session. Jul16 London coffee fell to take out yesterday's lows in early dealings but rallied back to close just four dollars below yesterday's high. Volume was half that of yesterday's. June options against Jul16 Coffee “C” expired with little influence on the market. Decent action in light of strength in the U.S. dollar.
Resistance: 131.20¢ in Jul16 Coffee “C”. Support: 126.60¢.
July New York (KCEN6) settled near its high (85%), up a solitary tick. Volume was eighteen percent below average at an estimated 32,890 lots including an estimated 904 EFP's, 43 EFS's, 417 TAS and 9,681 spreads. 4,417 calls and 5,150 puts also traded. The KCEN6-LRCN6 arbitrage: 53.62¢. Ratio: 1.7037. €: $1.1313-0.6%. BRL: 3.5180/$-1.0%. CRB: -0.6%. Crude oil: -½%. S&P500:-0.8%. Open interest: 187,140-2,610 (50-day stochastic: 40%; 125-day: 55%). No delivery notices were issued.
July London (LRCN6) settled near its high (90%), up two dollars. Volume was fifty percent below average at an estimated 9,069 lots including 2,301 spreads and 189 EFP's. 825 calls and 2,345 puts also traded. Open interest: 107,751+657 (50-day stochastic: 9%; 125-day: 8%). 109 retenders were posted.
El Salvador exported 105,073 quintals (46-kg bags) of coffee in April, the Salvadoran Coffee Council reports, up 3.3% from 101,698 quintals in April 2015.
Vietnam shipped 185,962 tonnes of coffee in April, Vietnam's General Customs Department estimates, up three percent from March, 74% higher than in April 2015. 4-month exports are 36% higher than one year earlier at 662,747 tonnes.
CFTC reports that large speculators were net buyers of 9,242 lots of Coffee “C” in the week ending May 10th leaving them net short 2,723 lots. Large hedgers sold 8,755 lots increasing their short position to 35,847 lots. Small traders cut their net long position by 1,179 lots to 5,297 lots. Index traders increased their net longs by 694 lots to 33,273.
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