Evening Coffee by Societe Generale

     Opening 3¼ hours later than usual due to the holiday in the London market, New York coffee rallied as much as 130 points in the first fifteen minutes today then began a steady decline fifteen minutes later as the Brazilian currency market opened. The real fell steadily over the next three hours, dragging the New York coffee market down with it.  We fell 2½¢ from the high as the real reached its nadir, eased off further even after the Brazilian currency stabilized. Jul16 traded to its lowest level since March 3rd.
     July New York (KCEN6) settled near its low (6%), down 1½¢. Volume was thirty-nine percent lower than average at an estimated 26,742 lots including an estimated 320 EFP's, 0 EFS's, 1,160 TAS and 8,226 spreads. 2,130 calls and 1,758 puts also traded. The KCEN6-LRCN6 arbitrage: NA. Ratio: NA. €: $1.1522+0.6%. BRL: 3.4846/$-1.4%. CRB: -1.1%. Crude oil: -2.6%. S&P500:+0.6%. Open interest: 185,212+1,611 (50-day stochastic: 30%; 125-day: 50%).
     Resistance 122.80¢@0123.00¢ in Jul16 NY coffee. Daily downtrend from April 21st will be at 123.20¢ tomorrow. Daily uptrend from February 25th is at $1566 in Jul16 London tomorrow.
     Coffee exports from Indonesia's main growing area on Sumatra island fell seventy-nine percent year-on-year in April to 4,786.20 tonnes from 22,992.64 tonnes in April 2015. The total shipped in the first third of 2016 was down fifty-five percent from one year earlier to 36,183.82 tonnes from 76,691.21.
     Vietnam's Central Highlands are forecast to have sunny weather with average to below-average rainfall over the May 1-10 period. Water levels are below normal for three out of five provinces - Central Highlands Meteorology & Hydrology Department. 
John Bernardi