Evening Coffee by Societe Generale
Coffee futures finished higher for the third straight day, above the previous day's high for the second consecutive day. New York closed at its highest level since April 1st. London traded to its highest level in just over four months. Spreading was active in both markets. Buying was mostly speculative, selling merely perfunctory. Next resistance is at the window between 125.80¢ and 127.00¢ in May16 (the opening of April 4th and the close of March 30th). Top of downchannel at $1592 in May16 London tomorrow.
May New York (KCEK6) settled in its top quarter (76%), up 1¼¢. Volume was forty-four percent above average at an estimated 62,008 lots including an estimated 1,071 EFP's, 29 EFS's, 3,203 TAS and 26,217 spreads. 2,149 calls and 2,238 puts also traded. The KCEK6-LRCK6 arbitrage: 53.66¢. Ratio: 1.7588. €: $1.1396-0.1%. BRL: 3.5184/$-0.7%. CRB: +2.1%. Crude oil: +4½%. S&P500:+1.2%. Open interest: 195,057-4,651 (50-day stochastic: 68%; 125-day: 74%).
May London (LRCK6) settled in its upper half (62%), up eleven dollars. Volume was fifty-seven percent above average at an estimated 26,467 lots including 9,153 spreads and 253 EFP's. 3,645 calls and 1,344 puts also traded. Open interest: 114,825-2,978 (50-day stochastic: 0%; 125-day: 23%).
Brazil exported 2,996,549 60-kg bags (and equivalent) of coffee in March, the council of Brazilian coffee exporters Cecafé estimates, down 4.3% from 3,130,175 bags in March 2015. Arábica exports were up 6.8% to 2,637,534 bags (from 2,468,815), conillon down 83% to 58,168 bags (344,702). Processed coffee exports were down five percent to 300,847 bags-equivalent (316,658). Twelve-month total exports were down 0.4% from one year earlier at 36.731 mln bags from 36.862 mln.
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