Societe Generale - Evening Coffee

Another 7% drop shut the Chinese stock market down after 29 minutes this morning,
sending all world equity markets down in its wake. Investor George Soros warned of a
2008-like stock-market event. Crude oil fell to its lowest level since December 2003. Coffee
futures could not shake off that effect - both the New York and London markets gapped
down for the first time in recent memory and left those gaps unfilled: up to 119.50¢ in Mar16
NY, $1491 in Mar16 London.
March New York (KCEH6) settled in its lower half (42%), down 1½¢. Volume was 3%
above average at an estimated 29,167 lots including an estimated 821 EFP's, 1 EFS, 401
TAS and 9,489 spreads. 5,337 calls and 3,484 puts also traded. The KCEH6-LRCH6
arbitrage: 51.14¢. Ratio: 1.7623. €: $1.0904+1.2%. BRL: 4.0473/$-0.6%. CRB: -½%. Crude
oil: -2.3%. Open interest: 121,574+2,180. The Feb16 option series expires tomorrow. There
are few open options of note. The 5-day index rebalancing starts tomorrow.
March London (LRCH6) settled in its upper half (59%), down $13. Volume was  average
at an estimated 16,111 lots including 5,026 spreads and 720 EFP's. 2,292 calls and 2,045
puts also traded. Open interest: 121,574+1,634 (50-day stochastic: 61%; 125-day: 45%).
Colombia produced 1.454 mln 60-kg bags of coffee in December, the National Coffee
Growers Federation reports, up 34% from 1.086 mln bags last December. Exports were up
13% to 1.191 mln bags from 1.056. 2015 production was up 17% to 14.175 mln bags from
12.140 mln - the highest calendar-year total since 1991. 2015 exports were up 16% to
12.687 mln bags from 10.957.
Guatemala's December coffee exports rose marginally in 2015 to 166,794 60-kg bags
from 161,442 bags in 2014 the National Coffee Association, Anacafé, estimates.
Costa Rica exported 42,286 60-kg bags of coffee in December, the Costa Rican Coffee
Institute (ICAFE) reports, down 20.5% from 53,195 bags in December 2014. Oct-Dec
shipments were down 18.07% from the same period one year earlier at 94,196 bags.