Coffee Commentary for February 20th

ICE Coffee Finish with Little Change


Arabica coffee futures finished with little change on Friday , as market participants await for a clearer definition of the recent price action. The most active contract for May delivery settled 25 points higher at 152.90 cents a pound. Volume reached 26,682 lots, including 5,093 switches. A total of 1,526 delivery notices were issued last night; the main issuer was ABN Amro, and Newedge was the main stopper. Prices of the benchmark contract for May delivery fell at one point near the 150.00 level, however they recovered after good buying interest supported the market. In Brazil, rains in the main coffee growing areas are forecast to slightly decline during the weekend, but should return on February 25; total rainfall during February has been close average. During the week, Arabica coffee prices lost 13.60 cents or 8.1 percent. Signs of better weather in Brazil, and the devaluation of the currencies sparked heavy liquidation ahead of the first notice day, taking prices to their lowest level in a year. In other news, emerging market currencies remained weak.
London Market - London was not immune to the bear strength in New York with levels breaking down below the 1975 marker basis K15 on renewed confidence regarding Brazil, amid increasingly positive crop outlooks. Volume was poor with the market coming under pressure from momentum shorts looking to profit from a potential weakening of the arbitrage with London looking relatively costly in the present environment. Interesting to note that with Conillon prices in Brazil firming (as the result of dryness in Espirito Santo), an internal arbitrage in Brazil has led to higher procurement of lower grade arabicas and grinders to fulfil roaster needs. We could be seeing more deliveries of Conillon to the board in the near future. As we think about the Return of Vietnam after the New Year holiday the market will start to focus on local activity. Prices have remained firm over recent weeks with farmers and speculators confident to carry longs over the holiday. Differentials have remained strong for most of the month with much of recent business being processed on a consignment which has created batches of selling into the market over the last month adopting a different direction of business than in past seasons. The recent crop numbers are tending to move higher with estimates ranging between 28.50/30.50 million bags for the current crop. Exports have been running ahead of last year with the carry over stock from 2013/14 large towards 4 million bags according to estimates which is double the previous seasons.