Arabica futures settled lower today in a session with regular activity. The most active contract for May delivery closed 325 points lower at 182.65 cents a pound. The market was pressured by spec selling encouraged by the weak technical actions. After the opening, timid gains failed to attract solid buying, evidencing strong resistance against the previous session’s highs. The K/N was also under pressure losing 40 points to end at 1.40 cents. Another increase in certified stocks to the highest level seen since October was a bearish factor today. A close eye is being kept on Brazilian weather, with the most recent forecasts calling for a dryer pattern of weather, which could potentially impact the final stages of development for the new crop. However, dry weather will become beneficial in the coming weeks as harvesting begins in the main Robusta producing regions and from late April into May for Arabica. Cert stocks added 7,380 bags for a total of 458,107 bags. Pending grading declined 8,352 bags to 172,071 bags. Graded today 18,770 bags. Passed 8,605 bags (BR 8,320; NI 285), Failed 10,165 bags (BR 7,791; IN 639; NI 570; PNG 320; PE 845).
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3260 +74 with a 3324/3233 range. Flat price faltered with a lack of follow through buying. With no fresh fundamental news and a down tick in momentum it seems the specs were trimming long positions into very little commercial buying. The weaker structure also triggered some long liquidation, May/Jul saw a 94/118 range on 1k lots. Flat price volumes have also fallen with only 6k lots trading on the most active May24 contract. Robusta Jul24 3000/May24 3250 diagonal putspread traded 500x @ -3. Robusta May24 3200/3100 putspread vs 3243Δ14 traded 400x @ 40.
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Arabica coffee futures for May delivery settled 20 points lower at 185.00 cents a pound. Ealy liquidation added some pressure on the prices; however, the market was able to bounce as the liquidation eased. A large liquidation of longs on Friday was evidenced as the open interest data showed a decrease of 4,497 lots. Funds began to liquidate long positions after the market reversed the direction last Thursday. The CFTC’s COT data on Friday showed the funds still with a hefty long position as of last Tuesday, however after the recent action the position could have been reduced considerably. Support near 181, the lower level of the Bollinger band discouraged short players to continue adding position. Arabica certified stocks increased by 6,405 bags to 431,157 bags. Pending grading added 5,736 to 177,293 bags. Graded today 12,149 bags. Passed 6,905 BR 4,910, PE 1,995), failed 5,235 ( BR 4,345, IN 320, PE 570 )
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3279 -18 or 0.55% lower with a 3316/3268 range. A fairly subdued session with no real significant action. An inside day with very little volatility and volumes reflected that, only 5.5K lots traded on the most active May24 contract. Commercials seem to be sitting tight with no notable roaster buying at these levels. Structure saw a similar pattern with May/Jul only managing to trade 1.3k lots between 98/115. Robusta May24 3350/3050 putspread vs 3276Δ34 traded 1500x @ 130. Robusta May24 2700 put traded 500x. Arabica Coffee futures main contract May24 settle 700 points lower at 185.20 cents per pound. The NY market ended the week 0.9% higher but 4.9 % below the week's high. The volume was good, almost at par with the previous day's session, totaling today 62,157 lots, including 14,374 switches. Today was Apr24 options expiration and clearly the area of interest laid in the 182.50/185.00 range. Additional factors that played a role this week were traders and the overall market managing US data reports. The dollar index corrected significantly and today was not the exception, making new lows in the early hours before the jobs report and turning around thereafter, this recovery in the dollar sustained the pressure on Arabica coffee after trading below 187. Furthermore, everything seemed to be turning around. Crude oil corrected downward, unable to trade above previous week's highs and the Brazilian Real followed this weakness, trading back at 4.9344. Arabica certified stocks increased by 13,875 bags to 424,752 bags. Pending grading increased 9,277 bags to a total of 171,557 bags. Grading on Friday a total of 24,223 bags: 13,875 passed and 10,348 failed.
COT (CIT) Non-commercials decreased their long position by 264 lots to 54,446 lots long and decreased their short position by 780 lots to 21,804 lots short, with a net long position of 32,642 lots in the week to March 05. The recent strength in Robusta fails to attract a fresh element of buying encouraging long liquidation into the weekend, with values ending the session over 3% lower. A fairly subdued opening saw values hug $3350 basis May through early exchanges, whilst participants awaited fresh buying against the Vietnam undertone which has dominated bullish sentiment. However, values were unable to attract fresh buying and the recent upside momentum diminished naturally drawing the systematic players to the terminal as sellers. With the roasters noted more buy absence levels swiftly breached nearby support at $3329 triggering a wave of speculative liquidation into a vacuum of $100 to $3256 with only a marginal correction observed into the close. Arabica futures pick up where they left off yesterday, building the short-term support in the 185/186 area as the NY market came into the session accompanying the Robusta early positivity. Further support was found as the dollar index extended the move lower and coffee found buying interest and stops in the 189 area. The main contract MAY24 traded an ample range of 10 cents between 184.75/194.75 on good volume with a total of 69,9678 lots including 19,121 switches and a settle +590 points higher at 192.20 cents a pound. The market awaits US non-farm payrolls numbers tomorrow. Arabica certified stocks increased 18,330 bags to a total of 410,877 bags. Pending grading also increased 815 bags to 162,280 bags. Graded today a total of 21,674 bags: 18,330 passed (10,220 BR, 550 HN, 1,375 MX, 960 PNG, 5,225 PE) and 3,344 failed (275 HN, 319 PNG, 2,750 PE).
The Robusta terminal continues to lead the coffee sector touching new contract highs through the course of the session. Dynamics have not changed as participants weigh ongoing default issues out of Vietnam with offers seen at +800 and many larger players unwilling to sell through the backdrop of uncertainty in the local market. This is naturally encouraging strong upside momentum which draws the speculative community to the terminal as buyers into a vacuum as origin is noted by almost total absence. Technically dynamic as values post bullish confirmation in the form of a secondary settlement above the old key support $3241 basis May24. This was an impulsive move driving values above the upper Bollinger band average whilst slow stochastics show plenty of upside potential. On a purely technical basis you would be long amid comfort with no alerts to change course at this time. Arabica coffee futures briefly tested below previous day's lows. The main contract, May24, held the short-term trend that started early last week and found further support in the 183.00 area this week. The May24 contract settled 295 points higher at 186.30 cents a pound. NY market daily activity remained active in a tight range while Robusta took center stage. Arabica's volume was moderate with a total of 31,279 lots, including 8,191 switches. Additional support from a softer US dollar with a stronger Brazilian Real and Colombian peso. Traders and coffee professionals will gather in Nashville this week for the NCA convention as well as in Guatemala for the PRF.
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3,309 with a 3328/3172 range. A new all-time high (10 tonne contract). An impressive flat price rally largely due to the fact there are no natural sellers which is encouraging upside momentum driven by the speculative sector. Stops were triggered through the previous 2nd month continuation high of $3,241 hitting vacuums of liquidity. Structure also rallied with May/Jul seeing a 78/102 range on 3.7k lots. Options continue to be active with highlights below: Robusta Jul24 3100/2900 putspread vs 3195Δ15 traded 2000x @ 77, Robusta CSO Jul24/Sep 70 put traded 2500x @ 32, Robusta CSO May24/Jul 100/50 (1x2) putspread traded 2500x @ 15, Robusta May24 3500 calls vs 3290Δ26 traded 1000x @ 63. Arabica coffee futures corrected the recent uptrend Tuesday on speculative liquidations. The most active contract for May delivery settled 355 points lower at 183.35 cents a pound. Volume reached 47,430 lots including 12,810 switches. The spec selling came after an initial rally failed to attract solid buying. Selling pressured the May/July switch also that ended at 1.95 or 45 points lower. A significant increase of the open interest yesterday, 5,140 contracts to 219,951 contracts, probably evidencing weak long players added the bearish sentiment. Traders and coffee professionals will gather in Nashville this weekend for the NCA convention. Certified stocks added 9,400 bags to 381,107 bags. Pending increased by 1,533 bags to 160,955. Graded today 19,770 bags (BR 14,080, PE 5,050, PNG 640). Passed grading 10,000 (BR 8,320; PE 1,680). Failed 9,790 (BR 5,760, PNG 640, PE 3,370).
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3180 -9 with a 3217/3163 range. Slow inside day session with low volumes. Market struggled to gain traction to get above yesterday’s high running into some light producer selling. Structure also remained within the recent range which previously has been the trigger for speculators to add longs. May/Jul saw a 78/90 range on 3k lots. Very little in the way of fresh news in today’s session. Robusta May24 2500 put traded 500x @ 3. Arabica coffee futures closed higher Monday boosted by the firm structure and technical factors. The contract with most of the activity for May delivery settled 360 points or 1.9 % higher at 186.40 cents a pound. The nearby May/July switch gained 50 points to end with a 2.40 cents premium. Good speculative buying in anticipation of similar behavior of the March / May supported the structure. After trading for most of the previous year between -100 to flat, the March/May jumped to 9.00 before the FND surprising participants. At the same time, the constructive technical picture contributed to lure solid buying. The easy breach of resistance levels at 185 and 187.50 also triggered buy-stop-orders from funds that are looking to return to the market place. Coffee trades will gather in Nashville for the 2024 National Coffee Association Convention from Thursday to Saturday. On Monday the 11th, CeCafe (Council of Coffee Exporters of Brazil) will release the February exports data. Certified stocks increased 11,160 bags to 371,707 bags. Pending grading added 2,050 bags to 159,422 bags. Grading on Monday 19,520 Bags (BR 19,200; IN 320). Passed grading 10,560 bags (BR), failed 8,960 bags (BR 8,640; IN 320).
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3189 +46 or 1.46% higher, with a 3238/3122 range. Flat price continued its upside momentum largely fuelled by speculative buying into a total absence of commercial selling. It’s clear the tightest in the physical market remains with no let up on the horizon which can be seen in the way structure has also rallied. May/Jul saw an 81/100 range today on 3.6k lots. Option activity was mixed with highlights below: Robusta May24 3150/3000 putspread vs 3210Δ16 traded 2000x @ 55, Robusta Jul24 2800 puts vs 3118Δ22 traded 1000x @ 71, Robusta Buy 2x Jul24 3200 calls - Sell 3x Jul24 3400 calls traded 500x @ 20. Arabica coffee futures closed higher Thursday at the end of a session with moderate volume. The most active contract for May delivery settled 260 points higher at 184.35 cents a pound. Main action came today from short term traders looking for volatility and operators closing books for the end of the months. The nearby K/N switch saw firm gains. On the other hand, some pressure came from weakness of the Brazilian Real, which traded near month lows today. Fundamentally, the market is digesting the results of a Reuters poll which estimates Brazil’s 2024-2025 harvest at 69.5 million bags. Earlier this month, StoneX forecasted Brazil’s 2024 crop at 67 million bags. Data from CECAFE on Brazil’s February exports will be released next week. During the month, Arabica futures prices declined 6.45 cents or 3.38%. A firm dollar, the increase of cert stocks and the expectative of a greater Brazilian output in 2024 were the main bearish factors affecting the market. Next week, market participants will gather in Nashville for the NCA conference.
Cert stocks increased by 10,840 bags to a total of 353,606 bags. Pending grading also increased by 504 bags to 149,251 bags. Grading summary today: total 19,985 bags, 11,390 passed and 8,595 failed. The cert stocks increased 103,777 bags during to month, reaching 353,606 bags, the high level since November 2023. Robusta May24 contract settled at $3095 +51 or 1.68% higher with a 3110/3035 range. Continued technical support gave participants confidence to buy back into the market re-establishing nearby longs. Commercial activity remains muted with very little significant activity on either side of the fence. Volumes reflect this fact with only 7.8k lots traded on the May24 contract. Structure also strengthened; May/Jul saw a 59/71 range on 2k lots. Robusta Jul24 2750/2450 putspread vs 3010Δ16 traded 1000x @ 61. Arabica futures closed down again today at the end of a slow session. The reference contract for delivery in May ended 130 points down or 0.7% at 181.75 cents per pound. Volume reached 24,836 lots, including 5,679 switches. The active switch May/July remained unchanged, with a premium of 140 points. The action was similar to recent sessions, with short-term speculators trading looking for volatility. The bearish sentiment was added by the arrival of 40,146 bags yesterday, mainly of coffee from Brazil to be certified, however the approval rate has only been around 50%. The firmness of the US dollar also affected the commodity complex in general. The Brazilian real lost 0.7% against the dollar after rising almost 1% in the previous session. US inflation data at the end of the week has boosted the US currency. Certified stocks increased by 8,995 bags to 342,766. Pending grading decreased 17,280 bags to 148,747 bags. Graded today a total of 20,800 bags (BR 20,160, IND 640): 9,280 passed (BR 8,960, IN 320), 11,520 failed (BR 11,200, IN 320).
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3044 -33 with a 3070/3022 range. Flat price continues to whip across key technical levels with no clear direction. Main factors causing this are lack of fresh fundamental news and a lack of interest from the commercial sector. The main participants are specs (liquidating near term longs) and algorithms day trading momentum. This is reflected in poor volumes, only 8k lots traded on the most active May24 contract. Structure has softened off a touch today with May/Jul seeing a 58/69 range on 1k lots. Robusta CSO May24/Jul 100/50 putspread traded 2000x @ 32, Robusta Jul24 2900/2600 putspread vs 2985Δ22 traded 2000x @ 101, Robusta May24 3050 puts vs 3052Δ48 traded 2000x @ 130. Arabica coffee futures fell Monday as fundamentals continue to shift slightly bearish. The most active contract for May delivery settled 70 points lower at 179.60 cents a pound. Activity was light with the volume reaching 26,823 lots, including 5,802 switches. The action today was dominated by short term specs looking for volatility. Certified stocks data continues to add weight to the market. After increasing 16,895 bags last week, cert stocks increased 8,640 bags today to a total of 332,797 bags. Since the beginning of the month, certified stocks have increased by 82,968 bags, and although they remain close to the lowest levels in recent years, the recent increase would be an indication of flow of fresh coffee from Brazil. Pending grading stand at 125,881 bags. Recent rains in Brazil have been favorable for the development of the crop and forecast for moderate to heavy rains expected next days will continue to improve the outlook for the 2024 output that now appears to be closer to 68 to 69 million bags. Reviewing Friday’s COT report, the funds are still vulnerable as their net long position remain high at 34,206 lots despite a reduction of 3,856 lots.
Technically, the market consolidated after Friday's breakout. Next support would be 175/ 173 and resistance remain at 182.50 /185.00. (May contract). Robusta May24 contract settled at $3020 -10 with a 3075/3011 range. A slow day with flat price eventually finding support on the 40ma. Commercial activity seems somewhat muted with sporadic buying scale down. Specs seems to be the most active participants liquidating nearby longs. Structure remains unchanged with May/Jul seeing 2.2k lots trade between 53/59. Robusta CSO Jul24 0 put traded 1000x @ 8, Robusta May24 3200 call traded 700x @ 86. |
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