Arabica coffee futures closed slightly lower after making new highs not seen since Q3 2022. The contract with the most activity for May delivery closed 140 points lower at 211.10 cents per pound, reverting from early high of 216.40 cents. High volatility continued to affect prices. Short-term speculator buying boosted the market early, however profit-taking later knocked prices down. The selling was encouraged by technical factors such as overbought conditions that make the market very vulnerable to a correction, and the proximity to important resistance levels against the 220 area. The CFTC’s COT data published on Friday showed once again that funds continue to add long positions, now with a net long of 43,059 lots, while the short commercial position expanded by 12,540 lots to a net short of 98,353 lots. Certified stocks added 2,100 bags to 615,652 bags. Pending grading increased by 770 bags to 73,884 bags. Total graded today 4,990 bags.
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3742 with a 3793/3701 range. Early in the session flat price struggled to gain traction, under pressure from the weakening structure. May/Jul continued lower printing a new recent low of 51 eventually rally back to unchanged to print a high of 77 on 7k lots. Commercial activity was sporadic with a small amount of commercial buying seen scale down. It seemed the rally into the close was more short covering from earlier shorts going into the market rather than fresh longs or commercial pressure. Robusta May24 3750/3300 putspread vs 3776Δ44 traded 250x @ 82.
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Arabica futures settled higher for third consecutive session supported by commercial short covering. The firmness of the London market also continues to boost Arabica prices. The most active contract for May delivery closed 585 points higher at 203.60 cents a pound. Volume expanded to 108,026 lots, including 35,950 switches. The rise has surprised dealers that have been forced to cover positions. Non-commercials have been adding long positions as trade and the industry have been very bearish for Arabica, with many reports released in recent days highlighting a negative point of view. It is also important to remember that the majority of industry forecasts are seeing a surplus of Arabica coffee for the current coffee year. There has also been research and data that shows that the once strong biennial crop in Brazil is lessening, and production is stabilizing from year to year, indicating that even in an “off-year,” Brazil’s crop could remain very high should it be spared any weather damage.
Technically, breaking of the 200-level triggered good buying. However, overbought conditions made the market vulnerable for a correction. The open interest increased 5,154 lots as of yesterday to 247,741 lots, evidencing the new long positions. Cert stocks increased by 12,603 bags to 616,682 bags. Pending grading added 5,237 bags to 73,888 bags. A total of 21,713 bags were graded. 12,603 passed (2,673 BR, 1,925 GU, 275 ME, 4,410 NI, 2,250 PE, 320 TZ, 750 VE), and 9,110 failed ( 1,100 GU, 1,100 ME, 4,950 PE, 960 TZ, 1,100 VE). Robusta May24 contract settled at $3812 +149 with a 3838/3634 range. Another strong rally with further commercial hedge lifting being the main driver of prices higher. A real lack of meaningful selling was present to absorb the buying. Structure remains stubborn with no real movement, May/Jul saw a 81/88 range on 10k lots. Outright volumes were the highest we have seen for months with 19k lots trading on May24 alone. Another busy day in the option space with the highlights being: Robusta Jul24 2800 put traded 2800x @ 11, Robusta Jul24 3500/3250 putspread vs 3660Δ16 traded1 1500x @ 84, Robusta Jul24 3400 calls vs 3678Δ72 traded 1000x @ 376, Robusta Jul24 3500/4000 callspread vs sell 3100 put traded 700x @ 200. Arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange settled higher today on speculative buying. The most active contract for May delivery gained 295 points or 1.56% to end at 191.80 cent a pound. With the London market closed, which has provided support recently, traders' action was encouraged by technical performance. Good support against the lows of the previous two sessions, triggered the spec buying. The open interest reached 240,465 lots the highest since March 2023. An increase of 22,465 lots since march 19th evidences the new longs that have been added during the last two weeks accompanying the rise . The weather in Brazil continue favorable for the northern producing areas with moderate rains, but dryness is expected to the south. The dollar firmed today adding pressure over the Latin America currencies. Arabica cert stocks were unchanged today. Pending grading added 6,415 bags to 80,296 bags. No grading reported today.
In a relatively slow day due to the upcoming holidays, Arabica coffee futures consolidated within the range of the last two weeks with the majority of the activity generated by short-term speculators. The reference contract for delivery in May closed 80 points higher at 185.65 cents per pound. The volume reached only 48,646 lots including 17,247 switches. The nearby switch remained weak as the structure tended to normalize. The forward curve shows slightly backwardation until the September position and then appears almost flat and with little contango. The COT report published by the CFTC on Friday revealed that the funds liquidated long positions, adding at the same time shorts to a net long of 28,469 lots. Certified stocks increased by 8,926 bags to 577,023 bags. Pending grading decreased 7,128 bags to 80,529. Grading summary on Monday: 20,401 total bags graded, 8,926 bags passed (6,451 BR, 1,375 MX, 1,100 PE) and 11,475 bags failed (3,690 BR, 1,440 PNG, 6,345 PE). During last week, the certs added 79,419 bags. Pending decreased 66,973, an indication that the flow of fresh coffee is in decreasing.
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3417 +59 with a 3415/3352 range. Strong recover from after Friday’s sell off. No clear reason for the rally other than a bounce of Fridays low. The key difference today was the layer of selling from origin, volumes not seen for a while. Outright volumes were very low only 5,877 lots traded on the May24 contract. May/Jul continues to operate within the recent range 87/96 range today on 1.5k lots. Robusta Jul24 3000 puts vs 3280Δ24 traded 1000x @ 75, Robusta May24 3200 puts vs 3380Δ23 traded 1100x @ 40. Arabica coffee futures closed lower on speculative selling as long players preferred to take profits after strong resistance against the previous session's highs halted an early rally. The most active contract for May delivery finished 85 points or 0.4% lower at 184.85 cents per pound. With no fundamental news, the action was largely steered by the technical price action. The dollar firmed today adding pressure on the commodities complex. Brazil's real ended weak at BRL 4.9958 near recent lows, encouraging selling in the local market. The attention of traders will be focused on the development of the Brazilian harvest, which begins in a couple of weeks. During the week, Arabica futures ended with a gain of 195 points. Certified stocks continued to increase, especially due to arrivals from Brazil and Honduras. Certified stocks increased 7,470 bags to 568,097 total bags. Pending grading decreased 14,425 bags to 87,657. Grading report on Friday: 17,825 total, 8,725 bags passed (3,085 BR, 1,650 GT, 855 NI, 3,135 PE) and 9,100 bags failed (6,545 BR, 275 GT, 2,280 PE). COT (CIT) Non-commercials decreased their long position by 3,680 lots to 50,569 lots long and increased their short position by 1,880 lots to 22,100 lots short, with a net long position of 28,469 lots in the week to March 19.
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3358 -27 or -0.80% with a 3428/3355 range. A mixed session completing a 3rd consecutive day of higher highs and higher lows. However flat price was unable to hang on to any of the gains made during the day being sold off in the latter part of the session. Commercial activity was light on the buy side but for the first time in a while origin selling was present scale up. Structure continues to operate within the recent range, stubbornly strong even with a recent increases in certified stock. May/Jul saw a 90/100 range on 1,828 lots. Robusta May24 3500 calls vs 3370Δ34 trades 1250x @ 65, Robusta Nov24 2500/2200 putspread trades 1000x @ 34. Arabica coffee futures for May delivery settled 310 points or 1.7 % higher at 185.50 cents a pound. Despite the market’s action continued to be driven by short term specs, short covering caused an early raise. As revealed by the open interest, some short positions added yesterday could be pressed to cover today as prices moved up. Fundamentals remain muted with the focus on the Brazil 2024-25 crop with the harvesting to begin in a couple of weeks. Activity will tend to slow next week as most of the countries will have the Easter break. The ICE coffee market will be closed next Friday March 29th in observance of Good Friday. In macro factors, yesterday’s FED meeting exposed positive path for the economy which may support higher demand for coffee in the US market. Certified stocks increased by 15,861 bags to 560,627 bags. Pending grading decreased by 3,930 bags to a total of 102,082. Graded today a total of 22,290 bags, 16,146 passed and 6,144 failed.
Robusta pushed to new Highs today finding good support at the 8 day moving average today at 3319 for the main contract May24. The London market May24 contract settle +70 at 3385 with a total volume of 17,543 lots including 3,716 switches. The next resistance is in 3460 the high from 3 weeks ago and the upper Bollinger band today at 3467. Regards, Arabica coffee futures briefly extended to the upside on previous session momentum. The main contract May24 made the high at 184.40 at the beginning of the session but opted to return to the consolidation area of yesterday and a settlement confirming this consolidation -65 at 182.40 cents a pound. Volume was slightly lower today with a total of 38,878 lots including 10,630 switches. A subdued day for coffee as expected given that the holidays are approaching and today is Fed Day on Wall Street the day in which we learn how sentiment among policymakers serving on the Federal Open Market Committee has changed regarding monetary policy. The Federal Reserve’s biggest challenge today is to accurately communicate a message that will drive sentiment among both consumers and Wall Street traders in a way that will help reach its goal. Certified stocks increased 12,500 bags to 544,766 bags. Pending grading decreased 12,375 bags to a total of 106,012. Today’s grading summary: 21,475 total bags graded, 13,195 bags passed (6,045 BR, 6,325 GT, 550 MX, 275 PE) and 8,280 failed (3,880 BR, 2,475 GT, 550 MX, 1,375 PE).
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3315 -39 points or -1.16% down with a 3379/3301 range. Market struggled to hold pace with no follow through buying seen. Commercials were noted as scale down buyers. Holding pattern of 3250/3380 remains intact. With very little fresh news participants seem reluctant to add new positions and the bulk of the intraday volatility comes from the speculators. Firm structure continues to portray the state of the tight physical arena. May/Jul saw an 86/96 range on 2k lots. Robusta May24 3200 puts vs 3360Δ28 traded 1000x @ 51, Robusta May24 3500 calls vs 3356Δ30 traded 500x @ 66. Robusta May24 3450 call traded 750x @ 66 Arabica coffee futures began a session testing lower accompanying the corrective move on Robusta for the early hours. After marking the low in May24 contract at 179.35, the NY market came in and with it, volatility was picking up. The market found good support above 180.80. For most of the session, the market traded both sides in a smaller range between 180 and 182, with some additional support in the last hour above this range. Arabica made new highs for the end of the session at 183.35, once again testing previous support that is now acting as resistance. Traders will remain vigilant for any activity and technical confirmation above these levels. Volume has been moderate to start the week with a Total of 44,488 lots including 10,796 switches. Certified stocks increased by 15,880 bags to 532,266 total. Pending grading decreased 36,243 bags to 118,387 bags. A total of 25,925 bags were graded today, 16,805 passed and 9,120 failed.
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3343 +15 or 0.33% higher with a 3360/3284 range. A very choppy day with no clear direction. Commercials were reasonably active buying dips where possible providing support to flat price, origin are still absent. Flat price volume has seen a slight uptick with 9,972 lots traded on the May24 contract. Speculators continue to dominate the arena. Structure remains within the recent range May/July touch softer on the day seeing an 83/102 range on 3.4k lots. Robusta May24 3250/2950 putspread vs 3315Δ32 traded 500x @ 75. Regards, Arabica Coffee Futures consolidate in the lower range of this week lows. The main contract May24 found initial support at 181.70 and lifted rather quickly to mark the high at 184.05 in the first hours. As the NY market came in resistance was found at the 183.50 area slowly testing lower on the second half of the session marking a new low for the week at 181.25. After various attempts to the downside with no further strength the market decided to test the resistance above successfully trading above 183.50 and making a new high at 184.20 before closing the session with a settlement 120 points higher at 183.85 cents per pound. The switch K/N also pick up in the last minutes for a settle 20 points higher at 1.60. The volume was sluggish for a major part of the session but turned slightly moderate towards the close with a total of 37,934 including 11,204 switches. Certified stocks increased 9,718 bags to 467,825 bags. Pending grading decreased by 10,348 bags to a new total of 161,723 bags. Graded on Thursday a total of 20,793 bags: 9,718 passed (6,348 BR, 285 NI, 3,085 PE) and 11,075 failed (10,515 BR, 285 NI, 275 PE).
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3277 +17 with a 3325/3251 range. Market probed higher early in the sessions but struggled to keep hold of those gains with very little follow through buying. Commercial activity was light on the buy side with origin selling seemly totally absent. Volumes continue to sit on the low side of average with only 6.8k lots trading on the May24 contract. Structure continues to operate within the recent range, May/July traded 2.6k lots with a 90/119 range. Robusta Sep24 2300 put traded 1000x @ 18.5 avrg. Arabica futures settled lower today in a session with regular activity. The most active contract for May delivery closed 325 points lower at 182.65 cents a pound. The market was pressured by spec selling encouraged by the weak technical actions. After the opening, timid gains failed to attract solid buying, evidencing strong resistance against the previous session’s highs. The K/N was also under pressure losing 40 points to end at 1.40 cents. Another increase in certified stocks to the highest level seen since October was a bearish factor today. A close eye is being kept on Brazilian weather, with the most recent forecasts calling for a dryer pattern of weather, which could potentially impact the final stages of development for the new crop. However, dry weather will become beneficial in the coming weeks as harvesting begins in the main Robusta producing regions and from late April into May for Arabica. Cert stocks added 7,380 bags for a total of 458,107 bags. Pending grading declined 8,352 bags to 172,071 bags. Graded today 18,770 bags. Passed 8,605 bags (BR 8,320; NI 285), Failed 10,165 bags (BR 7,791; IN 639; NI 570; PNG 320; PE 845).
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3260 +74 with a 3324/3233 range. Flat price faltered with a lack of follow through buying. With no fresh fundamental news and a down tick in momentum it seems the specs were trimming long positions into very little commercial buying. The weaker structure also triggered some long liquidation, May/Jul saw a 94/118 range on 1k lots. Flat price volumes have also fallen with only 6k lots trading on the most active May24 contract. Robusta Jul24 3000/May24 3250 diagonal putspread traded 500x @ -3. Robusta May24 3200/3100 putspread vs 3243Δ14 traded 400x @ 40. |
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