The Arabica coffee market closed higher today after a highly volatile session. The most active contract for July delivery closed 640 points or 2.9% higher at 226.85 cents a pound. Once again, the strength of Robusta prices drove the rise of the New York “C” marking. In an extension of Friday's action, prices were under selling pressure after the open. Contributing to the bearish sentiment, the COT data released on Friday also influenced the early trading as traders felt that the funds could be overloaded with long positions. The funds' long position has reached record levels of 68,839 lots as last Tuesday as reported by the CFTC in its weekly COT report. The strength of other soft complex raw materials added support. Cocoa remains firm trading above $11,000 per ton. Certified stocks fell by 15,105 bags to 624,545 bags. Pending certification rose by 1,675 bags to 66,079 bags. Today a total of 5,415 bags were graded. 5,130 bags (BR 855, NI 4,275) were approved, while 285 (NI) failed
Robusta Jul24 contract settled at $3949 with a 3975/3805 range. Market was dragged lower in the early part of the session largely down to the selloff in KC which seemed to be a COT reaction if anything. However, as the day progressed, we continued higher with a lot of the early shorts covering push prices higher. Once the US came online, we pushed through the highs and normal service resumed with limited commercial selling absorbing the speculative and roaster buying. Volumes were high with over 16k lots trading on July alone. Structure weakened with May/Jul trading 13/52 range of circa 6k lots. Robusta Jul24 3800/3600 putspread vs 3930Δ12 traded 1100x @ 79, Robusta May24 3500 put traded 1000x @ 1, Robusta CSO May24/Jul24 50 call traded 1000x @ 6
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Arabica coffee futures closed slightly lower after making new highs not seen since Q3 2022. The contract with the most activity for May delivery closed 140 points lower at 211.10 cents per pound, reverting from early high of 216.40 cents. High volatility continued to affect prices. Short-term speculator buying boosted the market early, however profit-taking later knocked prices down. The selling was encouraged by technical factors such as overbought conditions that make the market very vulnerable to a correction, and the proximity to important resistance levels against the 220 area. The CFTC’s COT data published on Friday showed once again that funds continue to add long positions, now with a net long of 43,059 lots, while the short commercial position expanded by 12,540 lots to a net short of 98,353 lots. Certified stocks added 2,100 bags to 615,652 bags. Pending grading increased by 770 bags to 73,884 bags. Total graded today 4,990 bags.
Robusta May24 contract settled at $3742 with a 3793/3701 range. Early in the session flat price struggled to gain traction, under pressure from the weakening structure. May/Jul continued lower printing a new recent low of 51 eventually rally back to unchanged to print a high of 77 on 7k lots. Commercial activity was sporadic with a small amount of commercial buying seen scale down. It seemed the rally into the close was more short covering from earlier shorts going into the market rather than fresh longs or commercial pressure. Robusta May24 3750/3300 putspread vs 3776Δ44 traded 250x @ 82. |
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