september 20th, 2022.

Arabica coffee futures for December delivery settled 405 points higher at 225.15 cents a pound. The volume reached 30,103 contracts including 5,848 switches. The nearby active December / March switch gained 85 points to end at 6.50 cents. Commercial activity continued light. Specs have been covering shorts positions pushing up the market that doesn’t find sellers. With the market inverted, origin has been absent and usually accumulates sales for later and close to the delivery period. A constructive technical performance encouraged the speculative buying as well. The market found good support under the 210 level yesterday and the firm performance of today attracted solid buying. Despite some analysts consider too early to predict the size of the 22-23 Brazil’s crop, the third survey of the Brazil’s 22-23 crop by CONAB helped the bullish scenario. CONAB lowered its forecast for the 2022 output to 50.38 million 60-kg bags from the previous on May of 53.43 million 60-kg bags. The Arabica was estimated at 32.41 million from 35.7 million. Robusta was estimated at 18 million bags up 10.7% from 17.7 million bags. Certs stocks declined 17,384 bags to 515,064 bags. Pending ,120 bags. No grading today.  
 
Robusta NOV22 contract settled at $2236 +34 with a 2214/2257 range. Much of the move today is largely down to Robusta moving back in line with the Arabica. With a 10-cent rally in KC over the period many expected more out of Robusta. But with a lack of commercial activity on either side it was more of a spec led rally with commercial activity light and reactive. Volumes were low with just over 6k trading on NOV and 1.4k NOV/JAN trading. Option activity was small apart from the March 2100 puts LU being crossed 500x @ 84 with a further 100x going through on the screen. NOV22 2200/2300 range remains.