October 25, 2022.
Arabica coffee futures for December delivery settled 460 points lower at 185.80 cents a pound. Volume reached 63,150 contracts boosted by 22,034 switches. Fund and speculative selling continued to be encouraged by the fundamental and technical factors. Rains in Brazil across the main coffee producing areas have improved the conditions for the development of the next crop. The technical breaking of the recent support levels and a large liquidation of the structures added more weight on the price action. The nearby active December / March structure lost 2.20 cents premium ending at 3.25 cents. This structure had attracted huge speculative participation following a firm trend and reaching 10.00 cents premium on Oct 6. The fall of the differentials in origin reversed the trend completely and has influenced significantly on the backwardation of the forward curve. Certs stocks declined 1,160 bags to 387,705 bags. Pending grading 646 bags. No grading
Robusta JAN23 contract settled at $1948 -5 with a 1971/1923 range. Lots of activity in the market today with Specs being the main sellers pushing the market lower to test new lows. Roaster buying scale down in good size absorbing some of this selling pressure. Expectation is Non comms have flipped their positions to nett short of both markets. With the last trading day pre FND on the NOV22 contract many traders were squaring up their books rolling positions to MAR23 and further down the board. NOV/JAN had a 3/20 range on 3789 lots. Just over 4k lots of EFPS on NOV22 also. The JAN23 1950/2100 cs was in Vouge trading 4000x @ 48.
Leave a Reply.