October 21, 2022.
Arabica coffee futures ended lower as improving weather in Brazil and concerns about the global consumption continue to dark the outlook. The most active contract for December delivery settled 15 points lower at 190.90 cents a pound. Good rainfall in the main growing coffee areas of Brazil has triggered a healthy flowering that could result in a large 2023 crop. The recent fund selling appeared to ease in today’s session that was mainly dominated by short term specs. The oversold conditions of the prices prevented the market of further losses, as the market is prone to a corrective up move and speculators prefer to wait for a better opportunity. The RSI, the most common signal for oversold conditions remains below 25 % at 11.2 %. Commodities were mostly higher as the US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies. During the week, the market fell 2.9 % or 5.80 cents, due to funds’ liquidations. Favorable weather in Brazil and growing concern about global recession weighed on the prices. The certs stocks declined 2,150 bags to 390,577 bags. Pending grading 646 bags. No grading today. During the week a total of 9,682 bags were removed from the ICE licensed warehouses.
Robusta JAN23 contract settled at $1996 -45 with a 2037/1983 range. With the market unable to hold onto the gains from Thursday session the non-commercial selling returned. Limited roaster buying was seen causing the market to close on the lows. A decent day for volume just short of 14k lots trading on the F3 contract. 4.5k NOV/JAN going though as well. Big day in options 4000 MAR/JAN 2200 diag CS LU traded @ 77 / 78. The JAN 2400/2600 cs LU traded 2000x @ 7.
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