november 18, 2022.

Arabica coffee futures had another negative session on Friday, as origin selling ahead of the FND continued to pressure the market. The most active contract for March delivery settled 125 points lower at 155.10 cents a pound. An initial recovery was supported by short covering as the selling eased early on the session. truckers strike in Brazil added some support. Also helping the market, a Bloomberg report with comments from Cooxupe’s president, the country’s biggest arabica coffee cooperative, mentioning a lower ratio of berries /flowers output, that could affect the size of the 2023 crop. A decline of the dollar boosted the Latin American currencies. The real of Brazil firmed 0.6 % on news that Lula’s government said that it will be committed to a responsible fiscal policy. The real ended at BRL 5.3520 after sharp fall the previous session. During the week, Arabica futures fell 10% or 16.80 cents. Weighing on prices, besides the origin selling ahead of the FND, the increase of the certified stocks as well as the pending grading, the weakness of the currencies, amid a very weak technical outlook that attracted the spec selling. Today the certified stocks increase by 13,720 at 497,809 bags. The pending grading decrease by 15,050 bags for a total of 569,638 bags. Total graded 16,320 bags, Failed 2,375, Passed 13,945.  
 
Robusta JAN23 contract settled at $1811 -7 with a 1837/1804 range. Another day of shadowing the Arabica, a small spec short covering rally early in the session ran into a thick layer of origin selling. As the session went on origin continued to sell the market causing flat price to creep into ‘’red’’ territory. Volumes were low with 6k lots trading on the JAN23 contract. JAN/MAR saw a 17/25 range on only 1k lots. Jan23 1950/1650 strangle vs sell 1825Δ10 traded 1000x @ 25, Mar23 2000/Jan23 1900 diagonal call spread traded 1000x @ -3.