Morning Commentary for November 20th
Good Morning!! Coffee prices are finding moderate early support this morning as the
market has successfully breached the 110.00 level and consolidated near the
middle of this week's range. The fundamentals of this market do not seem to support
a significant move higher unless there are some relevant developments with the
support programs from either Vietnam or Brazil. Open interest fell to the lowest
since October 17th, which tells us that the recent rallies have been mostly
helped by short covering. Positive fundamental news out of London Robusta
futures are also helping the move as they have been rallying since late last
week, and are now at the highest levels since October 25th. Coffee Exports from
Nicaragua in October were down 78.4% from last year, the nation is one of the
hardest hit in the region from the Roya Fungus outbreak. Momentum studies are
trending higher from the mid range levels which should support a move higher if
resistance levels are taken out, the next objective is around the 112.50 level
of initial resistance, with support near the 105.00 area.
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