Morgan Stanley Coffee Report

Early buying in KC on the backs of technical follow through and a bullish macro environment pushed coffee to fresh highs, matching levels last seen on the 2nd month continuation in Feb of 2015.  Even allowing for the midday – end of session weakness, coffee managed to post a higher high and higher low for the third day, while Robusta posted a 5th such day while extending a 37% rally off the Feb lows, a hair better than the 33% gain KC has managed.  The catalyst for the day appeared to be continued expectations for stimulus from the Bank of Japan, a renewing of the euphoric buying that has come with every inkling that liquidity will continue to be pumped into the system.  Nonetheless, both coffee markets ultimately took a breather, shaking off a strong crude market, weak DXY, abundant risk appetite, impressive CRB, and strong BRL, the last of which is interesting insofar as KC and SB bore strikingly similar intraday charts, yet often trade in opposition to the currency.  With Brazil selling picking up, yet still something short of aggressive, and plenty of divergent opinions, it appears coffee will continue to have a summer worth paying attention to.