Morgan Stanley Coffee Report

The first day of trading for 2017 found the market influenced by New Year flows and the dueling forces of a firmer real and the U.S. dollar index surging to a 14 year high.  Prices opened up unchanged and quickly climbed 2 cents higher (13905) but the buying faded and the market shifted into negative territory once currency markets became active and the greenback strengthened as positions in the dollar were rebuilt. The dollar surged  to the high for the day  once encouraging manufacturing data was released at 10 am which caused N.Y. to come under pressure and trade to the lows of 13440 , down 265 points, before stabilizing as industry and short term specs provided cushion.  The final 30 minutes of trading found a fresh pool of buyers stepping in and prices popped form 13620 to 13790 before settling back to end day one with a 35 point gain.  For many traders the calendar change brings along with it a clean slate, so I would caution reading too much into the flow of paper on the first trading day of a New Year.