Morgan Stanley Coffee Report

No respite from the relentless fund selling as systems, triggered by the chart break down, abandon longs with today’s action testing, and holding if only for trading on the closing bell, the 200 day moving average(14180) for the first time since June. The ADX technical  momentum indicator turned higher on the 29th of November, since then we have traded 10% lower. The last time the momentum indicator turned higher on a move lower was August 21 of 2015, at which point we were trading 133. For point of reference, the market bottomed out after declining 13% (116) on the 11th of September.  Industry have been especially good buyers since prices have breached 150 while origin have been more of a psychological weight than actual sellers, as the dollar continues to hold firm courtesy of encouraging U.S. economic data.  The strongest cases for the bull run up to the high of 17955 on the 8th of last month had been a week dollar, strong London and “squeezed” roaster.  The Arabica market has since sold off 37 cents, and while London is hanging in there, the best bull case scenario  for N.Y. now seems to be the whittled down net fund long position and a market that is “oversold” and due for a bounce.