Morgan Stanley Coffee Report

London and most of Europe were closed for the May Day holiday and judging by the action in the Arabica market,  New York  would have been better  with a day off as well.  A slighter firmer delayed opening (7:30)  saw prices spurt from 12205-12280 by 7:43 am which proved the high for the session.  What followed can best be described as a “grind” lower, as the market retreated in quite orderly fashion to 12040, which was, for the next hour and a half at least, a double bottom with Thursday’s low.  The market saw prices erode further at a very slow cadence until the low of 11945 was put in place just prior to the close. The ultimate outcome was the market settled at a 2 month closing low.  The active Arabica contract has fallen in May every year for the past 5, for an average 8.7% loss in value. Three of those years the high was made on the first trading day of the month (2011,2012,2014), in 2013 the high for the month was scored May 9, while last year the high of 14395 was printed the 20th of May.   Just some historical data to chomp on re the “not so merry month of May”, in the coffee market. Maybe this year will be different but day one failed to provide positive inspiration