Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - Nov 13, 2020

Arabica closed the day 75 points lower at 112.20, ending a 6 day streak of positive closes to close out an otherwise mostly positive week.  The high fell 10 points short of yesterday’s, while the low fell 10 points below, technically an outside day reversal yet in the most subdued way possible.  On the weekly chart KC held a higher high, higher low, 2nd positive weekly close, and remained above the recent downtrend.  Volume was almost exactly half of the prior session’s, predictable after the index roll wound down.  Z/H weakened 10 points to -2.95, a 52 week low, and underlying Honduran (and Rwandan) draws pair off against the expected inflows from Brazil.  Invest 98l has become TD31, and will likely become Storm Iota by end of day, and even as it follows Eta to Central America, ever closer to harvest, there was a collective shrug from the market.  Robusta held in better, 1410, -3, boosted by the relative strength in F/H (-9s, -1change).  Typhoon Vamco should bring the “last surge of excessive rain to Vietnam” in the words of Drew Lerner over the weekend.  The robusta COT showed the commercials flipping back to a net short while Managed Money covered a net 1626 lots in a fairly neutral report.  The Arabica COT will be released Monday due to the Veterans Day holiday in the US.