Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - Nov 10, 2020

Arabica rose to 110.00, gaining 45 point and closing just off the 110.30 high posted in the dying moments of trading.  After yesterday’s disappointing session coffee again confounded, printing its low just after 8am and hovering about for the following hour.  Spread volume spiked higher on Day 3 of the index roll as ZH closed unchanged at -2.70 on a strongish 14,940 lots, yet HH lost 15 points to -8.75.  Another disturbance has emerged in the Caribbean which has a high >70% chance of cyclone formation over the next 5 days.  This follows the devastation of Hurricane Eta which Central America is still dealing with.  Certs rose 6080 bags, all Brazil, and it will bear watching whether this coffee is ultimately called upon to replace Centrals due to logistic delays if nothing else.  Brazil now stands as the second largest contingent of Ice inventories at 103,729 bags, passing long time backbones Mexico (72,682) and Peru (78,053), a remarkable if anticipated rise from a mere 650 bags to open September.  London gained $19 in strong trading, closing 1366.  X again saw no tenders while certs rose 132 lots and another 125 were successfully graded today.