Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - May 3'18

KC traded a second day of consolidation, settling plus .60 points at 124.35.  N.Y opened up on the low for the day, a tick above yesterday’s low and ultimately put up an inside session as residual systems buying matched off against short term specs lightening up on longs. Open interest showed a hefty reduction of 6,214 lots and while the market settled down on the day Wednesday, the trade averaged weighted price was higher at 125.03 which is suggestive of a fair amount of short covering.  The release brought out some selling and the market briefly dipped to 124.10, but was followed by a bounce to the high of 125.40 and at the end of the day proved to be a textbook consolidative performance.  Discretionary bulls, encouraged by, yet cautious of, the technically inspired rally, were noted lightening up on futures and replacing with some upside calls.  Origin a presence but not as heavy as yesterday in light of the firmer real ($/R 3.5292 +.64%), and softer dollar overall following yesterday’s fed decision to keep interest rates unchanged.