Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - March 8, 2021

​Arabica posted a small gain, gaining 30 points to close 129.15.  This was the first green bar in 7 sessions, staunching a 10c+ price bleed, though it was not always clear this would be the case.  Early hours featured weak if tightly wound trading, and short term specs repeatedly tested the 128.00 low at the outset of the traditional pit hours.  The 50dma (128.24) was breached in the process yet a persistent wall of bids ultimately sent sellers scurrying and jobbers covered and went long, driving KC to an intraday high of 130.95 in short order.  Volume was fairly good though below Friday’s action.  The spot KN was unchanged while KK weakened 30 points to -8.15.  While certs rose again, increased by 8635 bags to 1,815,568, pendings fell to their lowest since Nov 24th (49,186).  Robusta suffered more extreme opening weakness than her sister market, and less of a midmorning bounce from the lows, providing for a 1361, -20 performance.  The COT drove negativity on that front, but it should be noted that the nearly complete reporting week’s average price is now in line with that of two weeks ago (1404 in both cases), albeit on lighter volumes.  KN and NU both fell $2, to -21 and -17 respectively.