Morgan Stanley coffee report - July 20

Arabica ended the week +3.95, 20 points of the daily high while settling at 102.30.  The highest settle since the beginning of July.  Early trade had us already through the weekly highs and once the 8 o’clock hour struck volume kicked in, taking the market above the 50 day moving average and just shy of the upper Bollinger Band for the first time in ten trading days.  Early Industry buying got the ball rolling which led to fresh shorts heading for cover on the move. The Structure continued it tightening ways with U/Z trading into -2.45 before settling +.05 at -2.50. Certs fell 16,599 bags to 1,598,597 with pendings remaining unchanged.    Robusta was again the talk of the two markets, gaining $50, closing 1293, taking out the recent high of 1270 and back above the Fibonacci 3/8ths retracement (12/2019 1479 High and 4/2020 1479 low) and testing the 50%  since early June.
 
COT net non-commercial numbers came in basically unchanged (-23,722).