Morgan Stanley Coffee Report for June 6, 2017

The first full trading week in June started with a reminder that winter is approaching in Brazil and forecasts for cooler temperatures in southern regions of Brazil’s coffee belt for this coming weekend, with one weather service calling for the chance of isolated frost in low lying areas.   Couple that with a net non-commercial fund position standing at 18,852 lots, the shortest we have seen since February of last year on a net basis, and the largest gross short (59,538) since November of 2015 and it was reason enough to ignore the 1% weaker real and probe the long side especially after trading to a 364 day low on Friday.  Prices held Friday’s low by 45 points and proceeded to trade 375 points higher with momentum to the up side building once open interest revealed an increase of 3,154 lots on Friday’s sell off.  Skeptics turned sellers as the market traded above 129 and while prices backed off a cent from the high’s KC still managed to settle with a net gain of 290 points,  its best performance since of the past 12 sessions.