Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - February 12, 2021

​KC bent but didn’t break, closing unchanged at 123.05 in KCK after testing the 122 line around 9am.  Roasters and discretionary buyers both stepped up bids ahead of the of long weekend and futures traded as high as 124.30 over the following 2 hours.  With 45 left until settlement however, and with traders seemingly starting to check out with Lunar New year, Carnival, and Presidents Day all offering immediate or nearby holidays, prices began to slip and never really recovered.  KC continued to track lower over the final hour of trading and with the neatly defined range going back to Christmas week holding steady, it would seem there was little rush to add additional material positions beyond the early efforts. On a weekly chart KC recorded a lower low, lower high, lower close, and a settlement unseen since the beginning of December.  The 120.85 / 121.25 weekly lows from mid-January (KC2) should be the best point of support, though industry and specs alike appear hopeful for a chance to buy the early / mid-December levels 5 or so cents lower.  Volume was again good, aided by Thursday’s KCH FND.  With the market closed Monday there are a mere 2 days left to clean up unwanted positions.  H/K held mostly steady, settling a tick weaker at -1.90 in a -1.80/-1.95 intraday range and -1.89 daily VWAP.  Robusta was again the better supported of the two markets as it has been for 3 of the last 4 session.  May settled 1367, +5 with spreads little changed (HK -25s, -1, KN -13s, +2).