Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - December 21'17

Arabica continued its slow and steady climb, settling 140 points higher at 123.15.  Roaster support was again noted, though in smaller clips than recent sessions, while origin book cleaning also ticked up from our perspective.  A fairly clean trend channel from the lows is beginning to emerge, and the 2nd month MACD has crossed providing additional conviction for the bulls.  KCH closed above the mid Bollinger band for the first time since Dec 1, while trading through, but not settling above, the 26MA.  The newswires featured reports of a notable investment bank maintaining 3 month price targets at $1.35, above the curve implication, likely providing support as well though to what extent is unknowable.   The dollar brought buying to KC as well, as it did most commodities, although this seemed to be a secondary support as KC outperformed the currency for much of the session.  Mixed views are being espoused on the impact of political turmoil in Honduras, and in our view these issues are not a futures market story at this time.  Robusta posted a below average volume session although fixing was prevalent across the commercial cohort, and futures settled unchanged at 1713 basis March.  Options were fairly muted, as was structure which closed in contango down the board as F/H settled a dollar weaker -1, H/K at -9.