Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - Dec 31, 2021

​Arabica closed a rocky 2020 on a strong note, gaining 285 points to settle 128.25 on volume well above recent averages.  2020 recorded an inside year with a small price decrease, forming something close to a dragonfly doji in the process (131.90 open / 130.15 close KC2, 135.45 high / 94.55 low).  H1H2 closed unchanged at -8.00, as did H1K1 (-1.90) and K11 (-1.70).  On a YoY basis that is tighter for the spot HK which closed -2.20 on Dec 31, 2019 and well inside of the H0/H1 which closed -10.15 on Dec 31, 2019.  Certs were unchanged on the day with no movement in pendings and a small 300 bag decrease in Honduran stocks.  Certs fell 612,247 bags on the year, though  the makeup is quite different with Brazil’s now 26.4% of the stock and growing while Honduras is 58.5% (the lowest since Jan 2019 when Brazils stood at a single lot equivalent) and sinking; these contrast with 0% and 68.7% a year ago today.  It would be facile to say this is the year everything changed, but it many ways it is true – consumption trends were shattered, Brazil asserted a new level of dominance in both markets as local prices soared to all-time highs even with bumper crops and other origins struggled under the weight of a low KC prices, and exchange inventories initially built on old Centrals, rapidly fell, and built again, albeit to the lower YoY level with Brazil the new swing “mild” origin.  With recent weather events impacting forthcoming crops, a new regime potentially ahead in FX and inflation, and great uncertainty on both the demand side and the future of the Ice stock, 2021 should be a remarkable year.  London meanwhile remains stuck, gaining $10 to close 1386.  OI in F is still a chunky 4909 lots with nothing tendered today.  Incredibly zero options traded in Robusta to close out the year.