Morgan Stanley Coffee Report - April 2'18

Easter Monday found KCK  settling at new low of  116.40, a loss of 1.75 points. KC started the 2nd quarter under pressure as May traded to a new low of 116.15, posted just before settlement, as the market followed the trajectory of an ever softening macro.  The dollar strengthened and equities come under pressure as China escalated the trade war with the U.S. by imposing retaliatory tariffs.  The S and P 500 Index slumped for the 6th time in 8 days. The commodity sector was a mixed bag with energy the worst performing sector and coffee followed closely at the bottom of the pack as systems funds remain in sell mode.  While the front month contract settled on its low, every cloud has its silver lining, as KC2 held the 116.90 low of last month by 1.60 points.  Whether today’s sell off was especially influenced by quarter commencement paper flows is left to be seen, but for coffee at least, new quarter or not, the pattern was quite familiar.