Morgan Stanley Coffee
The first trading day of the new quarter coincided with a Friday ahead of a long holiday summer weekend, leading to a mixed trading environment. Market participants were well staffed for much of the morning, though volume was light through the European session and well into the American day. Notable buying emerged as NY desks filled in, ultimately taking KCU to its high of 148.00 shortly after OI was released, before abruptly selling off into negative territory once again. With stochastics pointing to a well-overbought market, and the upper Bollinger band sitting at 147 with all relevant moving averages well below, buyers seemed more committed to keeping the market steady into the weekend than anything. Pointing to this sentiment, the best volume of the day emerged during the settlement period as another dip into negative territory on the day was bid up before the period, and prices rallied nearly a cent from bottom to top during the closing 2 minutes. Ultimately a 4th consecutive day of higher highs and higher lows was posted, by the slimmest of margins on the upper end. Option volumes picked up to close the week, with Q 140 P being the most popular strike trading 1249x. Robusta again featured greater intrigue as 3 unique strategies traded 1000x or more. With both the DXY and BRL lower today, and the BRL now less than 5% away from its peak of the past year, and 23% away from its weakest levels, one imagines the currency will continue to have an outsized influence on the market.
COT Net non –commercial position came in line with consensus at +29,036.
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