May 25, 2023.

Arabica coffee futures for July delivery settled 530 points lower at 182.70 cent a pound. Selling across the board was triggered as prices breaking from the recent consolidation. Commercial activity has been light. The switch Jul23/Sep23 settle at +2.05. Volume was back to moderate with a total of 46,167 lots including 13,184 switches. The Crude correction took a toll on the Brazilian Real and Colombian peso. Dollar index extends the climb; the GDP of the United States is updated (2nd update) to +1.3% for the first quarter of this year vs the previous estimate at 1.1% and market expectations also at 1.1%. US Jobless claims rose to 229K slightly up from an over two months low of 225K the week before but well below market expectations of 248K. Certified stocks declined 10,855 bags to 609,778 bags. Pending grading remains at 0.
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Revised figures out of Germany showed Europe’s largest economy had fallen into recession prompting a risk off approach across the broader commodity sector, led by energy. Whilst Robusta was not immune from this weakness it tracked loses observed through the larger ‘C’ contract at a much slower pace, reflective in the arbitrage narrowing 1.5 cents to dip below 70 cents July23/July23. Most observers expect this trend to continue as industry focus on lower qualities which are being accepted by consumers through the high inflation environment. Technically the market continues to be straddled by the middle and upper Bollinger band averages, however stochastics has crossed lower in overbought territory whilst trend strength is easing. This will place the current long holder on high with key support resting between $2500 and $2480 basis July23.