Not much action today with all eyes on the Federal Reserve as they concluded their latest monetary policy meeting, voting to raise the federal funds rate by 0.25% to 5.00%. Open interest increased by 817 lots, showing new spec longs, who most likely sold into the close to reduce risk before the Fed announcement. The active May23 contract settled 2.30 lower at 178.00 on 25,203 lots of total volume.
The CFTC has now caught up with the delayed COT reports with yesterday’s release, showing the funds slightly short 2527 lots as of March 14th. Given the action since then funds are now most likely slight long, confirming our theory that nobody has wanted to hold a large spec position in this market given the external volatility.
Robusta MAY23 contract settled at $2112 -18 with a 2145/2105 range. A test and rejection of yesterday’s high, with light origin selling and roaster buying nowhere to be seen. Both markets softer and lacking any real fundamental story meaning for the moment we are open to volatile / choppy intraday moves led by speculative activity. 2050/2150 range basis May23 remains intact. Volumes are very low with only 5k lots trading on the May23 contract. May/Jul tried to firm on light volume, 1k lots between 15/19. May23 2400 call trades 2000x @ 5
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