Evening Coffee by Societe Generale
New York coffee traded steadily lower in early action bottoming out at three cents lower one hour into active trading. We rallied steadily the rest of the session, reaching positive territory during the last minute of the settlement period. The Jul16-Sep16 switch was volatile on the day before first notice day for the spot Jul16, trading from -1.75¢ out to -3.00¢ before settling at -2.45¢. Sep16 RC traded higher from the start, closing at an eight-day high and above the downside gap, left on June 9th.
The dollar-real traded to its lowest since the end of last July but has since recovered to trade only marginally lower.
Sep16 KC held the bottom of a symmetrical triangle dating back to June 7th and midway between the opening and the close on June 15. The top of the symmetrical triangle is at 142.97¢ tomorrow.
September New York (KCEU6) settled nearly three quarters to its high (73%), down thirty-five points. Volume was four percent below average at an estimated 44,051 lots including an estimated 4,218 EFP's (1,640 Jul16, 2,549 Sep16), 83 EFS's, 485 TAS and 14,168 spreads. 2,626 calls and 4,287 puts also traded. The KCEU6-LRCU6 arbitrage: 62.26¢. Ratio: 1.8003. €: $1.1259-½%. BRL: 3.3991/$-0.1%. CRB: -0.7%. Crude oil: -0.2%. S&P500:-0.1%. Open interest: 178,220-847 (50-day stochastic: 0%; 125-day: 24%).
September London (LRCU6) settled in its top quarter (76%), up twenty-two dollars. Volume was two percent above average at an estimated 18,548 lots including 4,314 spreads, 203 EFP's and 1,965 EFS's. 2,035 calls and 1,280 puts also traded. Open interest: 105,130+1,161 (50-day stochastic: 23%; 125-day: 9%).
Brazil coffee weather: The coming week to ten days will be mostly dry and mild to warm with no risk of crop-damaging cold. - World
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