July, 28th, 2022.

Arabica Futures Rally on General Markets Recovery  
 
The New York “C” contract at the ICE for September delivery settled 590 points higher at 219.10 cents a pound. The market continues to be supported by ongoing concerns with the dry weather in Brazil as well as falling certified stocks. Larger producers in Brazil were also worried with low yields of the current harvest. Some attributed the lower yields to the development that has been slower than normal. The certs stocks decreased today 2,975 bags to 700,335 bags. Pending certification remained at 0 bags. The Brazilian Real was also firm today against the dollar, supporting today’s rally for coffee. All eyes were on the Fed interest rate decision due out later today. As anticipated, the central bank raised the rate by 75 basis points to a range between 2.25 % and 2.5 %. Brent Crude Oil jumped 2.4 % to $106.81/bbl, and Spot Gold Futures also firmed 0.18% to 1,720.37.  
 
Strong performance in Robusta today with SEP22 closing at $2009 +35 high 2015 / low 1969. Biggest driver was from the non-commercial buying / short covering, CTA’s seemed active above $1995. Commercial selling was noted scale up. Technically a decent close above the most recent high from the middle of the month, possible base for a rally up to 2031 next resistance level. Sep/nov remains firm with a range of -1/+4 on 1600 lots. The NOV/JAN 40/0 fence CSO traded 1000x @ 7 to the call, and the Nov22 2250 calls LU traded 600x @ 28.