january 19, 2022.

Arabica coffee futures settled lower after private and official estimates of the Brazil 2023 crop, that was released today, appeared already factored in the market. Prices climbed during the early hours however the action failed to attract solid buying prompting intraday profit taking. The most active contract for March delivery closed 40 points lower at 154.60 cents a pound. The volume reached 42,984 contracts including 12,187 switches. Selling of the spreads added pressure on the prices. The forward curve continues to gain contango. The estimate by VOLCAFE, projects a global deficit of 3.8 million bags for the 2023-24 season. They  
estimate the Arabica production at 40.5 million, down from 49.8 million in July estimate, and Robusta at 22.5 million. The announced CONAB report expects the Brazil’s 23 crop at 54.94 million bags, Arabica to reach 37.4 million, and Robusta at 17.5 million bags. The CONAB report is the lowest of the estimates released so far. Market participants are usually a little skeptical about CONAB reports as they are far down of the average.  
Certs stocks Increase 903 bags to 859,564 bags. pending grading 82,642 bags. Grading today: 18,062 bags. Passed 6,143. Failed 11,919. Robusta MAR23 contract settled at $1918 +16 with a 1925/1903 range. With the origin selling thinning ahead of the Tet holiday next week flat price is able to start testing new recent highs. On the MAR23 contract a 10- week high was printed @ 1925 on just under 10k lots. Mar/May remains range bound 30/35 range 3.1k lots. Mar23 1875/1775 put spread vs 1917Δ24 traded 2000x @ 26, Mar23 1900 calls vs 1910Δ54 traded 1000x @ 57.