Indonesia's 2014/15 Crop 8.8 Mln Bags, 2015/16 10.9 Mln

Belfast (CoffeeNetwork) As reported early this morning, the USDA attache has put Indonesia's 2015/16 coffee crop 24% higher on the year at 10.9 million bags. The 2014/15 crop is seen down at 8.8 million bags. Domestic consumption continues to expand due to increasing popularity of coffee-based beverages and growing middle class.

Production: The 2015/16 increase is due to favorable weather in key production areas during flowering and cherry ripening period. Coffee growers in Lampung, Bengkulu and South Sumatra report that rainfall days in October to November 2014 were “normal”. However, industry sources report that some key production areas continued to experience rainfall in early May 2015. This situation may delay harvesting as well as lower the quality of exportable beans. Based on the above information, Robusta coffee is expected to increase to 9.3 million bags GBE in 2015/16. Arabica coffee production is expected to reach 1.6 million bags GBE in 2015/16, a 150,000 bag increase over the previous year.

Coffee planting area is expected to remain stable around 1.2 million ha. Plantations are managed primarily by smallholders using non-intensive practices, leading to low yields. Growers report that weather remains the largest variable factor for production, influencing pollination, flowering, cherry ripening, harvest, and post-harvest activities. Coffee plantation expansion is slow as the majority of production rests in the hands of small-scale producers. Some exceptions exist, such as the recent establishment of a 2600 ha plantation in North Sumatera. In West Java, Perhutani, a state-owned company that manages forest and conservation areas, allows farmers to cultivate coffee on forest lands using yield-sharing contracts. Press reports indicate that local governments are also planning to distribute Arabica planting materials directly to farmers, with the intention of increasing production in coming years. Overall, however, production remains on less efficient farms, precluding economies of scale and the wide-scale adoption of yield boosting management techniques.

 
Consumption: Indonesian coffee consumption continues to grow, driven in part by the coffee industry’s promotional efforts. Consumption growth is further backed by Indonesia’s expanding urban middle class and soluble coffee producer marketing strategies. Some trends associated with increased domestic coffee consumption: 

Retail coffee shops are becoming more common and are now easily found in urban areas, universities, and shopping malls 

Retailers and coffee shop operators report increased membership within their professional organizations. 

Popular culture references, such as the recent release of the popular film “Filosofi Kopi” reflect coffee’s growing popularity and its growing cultural acceptance. 

“Street hawkers” selling instant coffee remain common in public areas such bus terminals and traditional markets.

Indonesian domestic consumption will reach 3.1 million bags GBE in MY 2015/2016, a rise of 50,000 bags from the previous year.

Trade: Indonesia’s jump in coffee production is expected to help increase exports to approximately 9.05 million bags GBE in MY 2015/2016. Post expects Indonesian coffee imports to decline from 1.295 million bags GBE in MY 2014/2015 to 1.280 million bags GBE in MY 2015/2016, based on industry reports that soluble coffee producers will procure more local Robusta in 2015/2016. Local roasters continue to demand increasing quantities of high quality coffee annually. Although Indonesia produces various high quality Arabica coffees, local roasters require imports from several origins for marketing purposes. Industry sources comment that sourcing Indonesian Arabica beans locally can be challenging, as supply chains are export oriented. For example, a West Java roaster pointed out that the Medan-based Arabica market (North Sumatera) absorbs Arabica beans from several sources, including Arabica specialty coffees grown on West Java.

 Stocks: MY 2015/16 ending stocks are expected to increase to 83,000 bags GBE due to increasing production and slightly lower imports.