ICE Coffee Futures Close Modestly Down
Arabica coffee futures closed down Thursday on speculative profit taking. The benchmark contract for December delivery settled 95 points lower at 133.70 cents a pound. The speculative selling came after the market encountered an area of strong resistance at the 138 level for the December position. Despite that the dryness in Brazil continues to concern the market, late reports of better probabilities and regular rains after next week encouraged some speculative long liquidation. Brazil sovereign debt was downgraded today by Fitch, a credit agency, to BBB-. No immediate impact was noted on the real, that was trading unchanged at BRL3.8120 at 3:00 pm EST. In related news, Colombia will produce more than 13.0 million 60 kilo bags this year, Roberto Velez from FNC said. Colombia output has been steady recovering, thanks to new decease resistance varieties and better weather.
-GCA Stocks down 6,055 to 6,117,108 bags as of September 30. Last year stocks declined 11,211 during September. Inventories remain close to the highest level since September 2003. For the past five years, GCA stocks have fallen by an average of 80,797 bags during September
London Market- The opening period in London followed a familiar pattern of this month with origin selling in place creating an overhead blanket of interest which encouraged weakness down to the lows of yesterday. Without the inspiration of New York in those early stages the board held a tight flat price range looking to the spot month structure for the turnover. The November discount widened with the ratio of rolling to covering making up the main flow from the spec players. Grading during this month has recorded only one day with 154 lots of Conillions approved. Concerns over the November circulate as the market remains worried about the healthy differentials quoted out of Vietnam which have not changed for weeks and the declining physical coverage but for the moment the movement of nearby stock has not reflected in any changes to stock numbers. The concern looking into the end of the year when we gauge the flow of the new crop out of Vietnam will be how strong the farmer position remains because the bulk of the large stock which is reported remains in those hands.
Nov/Jan dominated into the second part of the day with the switch moving into backwardation as the Nov trading to a $7 premium and making up the bulk of the turnover. An important transition in the pattern of the open position yesterday which increasing by 2,203 lots for the first time in the rally.
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