CoffeeNetwork (New York) – Brazil-based TerraForte has released their third and final Brazil crop estimate. According to the report, April and May rainfall data was highly celebrated even though being months that total volume normally is fairly low. “Fact is from January/14 to June/14 accumulated rainfalls were the worst one we have seen so far.”
Considering Terra Forte farms are amongst the most well treated farms, the company has detected 20% loss against our forecast done prior to the drought. However, TerraForte estimates 30% losses for the rest of South Minas and Zona da Mata. Cerrado is by far the better one with 10% loss. The whole Mogiana region, around 15%, South of Minas and Zona da Mata region with an average of 30% loss.
Therefore TerraForte’s 14/15 crop estimate has been revised to 28.344 million bags of Arabica and remains at 17.44 million bags of Conillon.
First estimate prior to the drought: 53.7 million bags
Second Estimate (February): 47.4 million bags
Third and final estimate: 45.785 million bags
BREAK DOWN BY REGIONS (in million bags)
2014 Prior drought 2014 after drought
SUL DE MINAS 13.900.000 9.730.000
CERRADO 5.610.000 5.049.000
ZONA DA MATA 6.100.000 4.575.000
SÃO PAULO 5.100.000 4.335.000
(Arabica) 2.200.000 1.650.000
(Robusta) 13.300.000 13.300.000
PARANA 900.000 765.000
(Arabica) 1.600.000 1.440.000
(Robusta) 1.800.000 1.800.000
RIO DE JANEIRO
(Arabica) 150.000 150.000
(Robusta) 40.000 40.000
RONDONIA 1.500.000 1.500.000
MATO GROSSO 500.000 500.000
GOIAS 500.000 450.000
OTHER ARABICA 200.000 200.000
OTHER CONILLON 800.000 800.000
TOTAL 53.700.000 45.784.000
ARABICA 36.260.000 28.344.000
CONILON 17.440.000 17.440.000
CARRY OVER STOCKS
Crop 13/14: 53.290.000
Carry 01/07/13: 9.840.928
Beginning Stocks: 63.130.928
Total exports: 33.971.000
Internal Consumption: 21.000.000
Carry 01/07/14: 8.159.928
2015 / 2016 PROSPECTS
• Jan/Jun 2013 – accumulated rainfalls circa 1050 mm
• Jan/Jun 2014 – accumulated rainfalls circa 470 mm
• Right now, they are witnessing plantations which were fully loaded, simply falling apart and losing most of its leaves. On those, normally TerraForte would expect a downturn of maximum 25% due to cycle. The way things are going, we basically cannot count on them.
• Pruned plantations which should make up for the loaded ones are showing a 20% loss in vegetative growth, depending on the region sometimes 40%.
• Surprisingly they detected a higher incidence of leaf rust. It is unusual for this time of the year, especially because normally it occurs during the wet season. Maybe due to extreme stress plantations are going through.
• TerraForte definitely won´t give any estimate on numbers for 15/16. Based on their track record, they forecast a very strong flowering due to the extreme stress of the plantations, which might mislead the market again when wonderful pictures of the flowering start circulating.
• Considering all facts above, they believe a huge percentage of abortion will take place.
• What is clear is prospects aren´t good and we would need an extreme change in weather pattern to avoid further disruption.
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